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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (42970)	3/3/2001 1:11:24 AM
From: advocatedevil	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Gottfried, I agree that PE is a poor indicator in this sector. Placing a relative value on a stock like AMAT is quite a feat. I've spent plenty of time reviewing fundamentals, staring at charts, analyzing the cycle and reading reports and filings, but I'll tell you honestly, I'm playing this one mostly on macro level gut feel. I believe that the technology related slowdown goes well beyond an inventory correction that some suggest. The accumulated debt in our economy (both personal and business) is causing problems. This isn't something that goes away overnight, even if it seems to have arrived that way. If the valley turns out to be wider than current consensus, then when that realization becomes widespread, I think we'll see a broad based move lower. That's when I'll be going long. The smart play is probably to buy some now and keep adding and averaging over the next quarter or two, but I'd like to get closer to what I believe will be the bottom. No one ever times the bottom, but it's going to be fun trying. AdvocateDevil