Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: LKO who wrote (95135)	3/3/2001 8:10:19 AM
From: alanrs	Respond to of 152472

I guess by reasonable I mean relative to recent history. Looking back to my records since July when I first bought the QCOM LEAP mostly as an experiment and to see what this was all about, I was consistently able to buy in the high teens to low 20's and then sell in the high 20's to low 30's. This happened 5 times (actually 6, but I missed the first one-learning curve) through the end of January, for a total return of about 200% with the money actually being at risk less than 1/2 the time. During this time the stock was range bound between low 50's and 100. ( quite a range to be sure, but the moves tended to be orderly). I find the stock now trading in the low area of that same range with .VLMAT (for example) selling between 10 and 15. I don't see any particular negative change in the companies prospects out to 2003 (as someone else pointed out, if it doesn't happen by then it probably ain't happening). If anything, the opposite. PE compression doesn't seem to be a particular force right now (I know that can change and we could be in for another down draft, but we are certainly closer to the low, even if the low is zero and we are all destined to till the soil behind oxen). In that context I believe the leaps are cheap right now and that the chances of QCOM going to 75 (in a meandering kind of fashion) are greater than the chances of going to 40. What worries me, as it always does when something new to me is successful, is what portion was smart and what portion was luck.