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Strategies & Market Trends : Rande Is . . . HOME -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: KevinThompson who wrote (48359)	3/3/2001 7:41:11 AM
From: GREENLAW4-7	Respond to of 57584

When is the best entry for COUNTER TREND RALLY? There is no question we are in a bear market and we could very well see 1200-1600 sometime in the next year, but what most traders have been doing over the last 10 months if they are making money they are calling for when the next COUNTER TREND rally will begin. I cannot forecast the exact bottom of the current downtrend but I do believe we are in the BUY FOR THE BOUNCE area. I base this on several important points in the market. We are entering the end of confession season and I actually am very surprised that we have only heard from a handful of stocks. Yes the NT, CSCO, GLW, and ORCL did take us to 2100 on the NASD but is it really that bad going 2 quarters out? THe amount of lowered expectations I believe will have a positive effect on the next quarters earnings. We know December was very soft, and january as well as february were also soft but what if I said Dec-Jan was the bottom of the cycle. We should see IMPROVING CONDITIONS going into the late April earnings calls. So if this is a fact companies will not devulge this until late April. This leaves a window of 5-6 weeks for a bottom formation in the nasd. Now if you are playing for the Q-T rally I would bet it should be fairly soon within the next 2 weeks at the latest. I actually think it started thursday but we will not know until we are clearly above 2300. I do expect to see the type of rally that we had the last week in May 2000. I suggest that many should study how POWERFUL that bounce was. Many stocks went up 20-30% in 2 days, some in 1!! My conclusion is we must be in the market to experience the 1-3 day power-push. I believe the next several days will shake far to many who believe these stocks are expensive, yes many are but they can be EXTREMELY OVERSOLD and expensive at the same time! I wish all the best of luck, and remember we are only at 2100 because the INSTITUTIONS have decided they want to see 2000 and mark my word they are buying as you and me are selling!! This perhaps is the most manipulated NASD I have ever seen. You wonder why we went up in early Jan, well I believe that was retail money and most funds were left out. When they finally woke up, came back from vacations on 1/14 they realized we were back at 2800-3000 range. In effect FUNDS MISSED THE LAST RALLY. But I do believe they will be in the next rally. The next rally may take us above the 3100-3300 range. Because I think the market will look to the fall quarter. I also believe we will hear IMPROVING ECONOMIC conditions in the April earnings. In conclusion I believe we will have a W recovery from the 2000 range in the nasd. I predict it will be UP, down UP again but higher.