Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Trading the markets..... -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: William H Huebl who wrote (3903)	3/4/2001 9:42:23 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 4583

Hi Bill, I think the NAZ is very weak.It is putting in a bottoming action that is often highlighted with false starts.They provide short term hope for clinging on margin holders who are stretched too thin - and then they disappoint. This is a wearing out process. I see a declining 200 day moving average in: NAZ SPOO and DJIA.This is significant. Even though rotation allows false starts the overall market direction is down. I am still in an accumulation mode as I like to buy value at bottoms and wait for capital gains out into the future.I always buy too soon.But this time I have been more mercenary like. Still have dry powder, and am waiting for a VIX spike into the 50's -60's with an on balance volume topping out confirmation(TC 2000). I think we have a ways to go: My long term target for the NAZ is 2041. This is so close to 2000, that it only makes sense that 2000 will be broken . When it does, then all the talking heads will say it's over - earnings will seem to be a never again scenario and that will create the Vix spike. A moment of value that will be a great buying time. JMHO An interesting article in Monday's IBD paper talks about mutual fund outflows. Last month was a negative flow month. The last time that occurred was sept 98. Octy 8 98 marked the turnaround of the NAZ and it never looked back. Oct 98 was the terminating shake out from a time period that meandered and ground down from feb/march of 98.It was a hard time to get a direction for the market as it was a trading range kind of market(very similar to the last 2-months). I have some positions taken from Oct 00 that are still in the plus.I'm hoping to add to - but only if new lows are established. If not, my powder is dry and like you I'm counting my gains every month(I get 8 1/4 in an offsetting account to my dealerships floorplan bill). I think we have some very scary market moves coming - not too far ahead. They will be scary but of excellent value for the long term holder. My experience in the car business says this is a dip not a recession. We had a terrible Nov and Dec., but January and February have been very good. People are still working and fuel costs are deflating. This sounds crazy and I would never had said it before - I really think the election diverted everyone's attention and it queered the Christmas season - that coupled with a cold winter and high energy bills took away the extra joy and confidence of the season. Lastly I think many people made a lot of money in 2000 and have to buck up the tax obligation on April 15th.Some conservative people may have reserved the funds but others may have played the market. To the extent that the players are now losers with only hope - I think more funds may well come out of the market in April.This will be about the time companies disappoint, if they haven't preannounced - This will be a double negative just before the benefits of tax withholding reductions and the time lag of the ongoing rate cuts from the fed will be kicking in expansion plans already on the drawing boards of large corp when money gets cheap - and I think it will. Sorry for the long opinion. I think things will end with a violent and scary shake - just before the medicine already being ingested kicks in. Those lemmings that panic - will panic right at the perfect bottom. What else is new? Buy only at new lows in stocks that have no debt and strong earnings.Just common sense and value - no voodoo just value. The worst that could happen is you'd hold them longer before they made you rich. As GZ says : Patience is a virtue - I buy into that belief!! Bob