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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Telemarker who wrote (890)	3/3/2001 12:23:50 PM
From: Don England	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

t.m., thanks, i halfway expected a p.m. telling me to mind my own biz. frequently it is not safe to intrude on folk's bad moods. i think gottfried's 'big money' probably correlates well with the index's smart money: big money is more institutional, and dumb money is more retail; less malign description, too. i would love a peek at your holdings. if you aren't willing i understand. the idea of a steady growth portfolio with dividends and no selling pressure in this mkt. is quite appealing in the abstract, and then some bozo comes along and pitches me pgo at 8 and i go all weak in the knees. i am actually beginning to wonder if the contra-bears may not have a case, and that the economy is going to pick up. having never found pissing into the wind to be a constructive activity i am cautious. but kasriel did catch my eye with his comparisons of m2, as a leading indicator, to economic activity. this guy is no pollyanna. i'll pop it in again in case no one noticed it the first time i did so. (he is making a case for watching the money aggregates at a time when uncle al has said it's of no value) "But the behavior of the real M2 money supply back in May suggested that a slowdown in the growth of economic activity was imminent without further rate hikes. In fact, the behavior of real M2 suggested that a slower pace of economic activity was imminent even before the 50 basis point rate hike on May 16. Interestingly enough, some of the same houses that were forecasting considerably higher fed funds rates after the May 16 rate hike are now forecasting considerably lower fed funds rates even after a presumed 50 basis point cut on March 20. Yet the recent behavior of real M2 growth suggests that a rebound in economic growth is imminent. kasriel isn't the only one saying there are odd little hints of a rebound here. just keeping my eye on it. as bad as i think debt, the trade deficit, the unwinding of tech, and such things are i don't discount the unexpected; it only pays to be a bear in a downtrend. you allude to that yourself. nothing is currently written in stone. don - the well-balanced bozo subsisting on yucca root and prickly pear in the high lonesome. p.s. hector: hope i didn't scare you off. my sense of humor is not for everyone and it wasn't my intention to offend or embarass you. i like to see lurkers throwing in their dos centavos. sharp: thanks for the caveat on p/e's. i am perhaps lulled when i look at stocks with nice ratios. since i believe little of what i read as to techno-innovation, managements godlike qualities, etc. i find i have little to go on info-wise. and the charts are just generally useless at the moment, at least in tech. dipping my toes and keeping stops and applying bandaids as needed.

To: Telemarker who wrote (890)	3/3/2001 12:31:26 PM
From: Terry D	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 23153

Is this for real? - MAJOR STORM BREWING A situation setting up today has the potential to bring one of the biggest storms of the season to the East Coast this weekend into early next week, causing severe thunderstorms, heavy snows, and coastal flooding. The fuel will be a large temperature contrast between the warm air to the south and cold air to the north (see second graphic below). The result will be explosive development Sunday Night and Monday. WHERE WILL IT GO? From- accuweather.com It is not to going to make it to Maine - so I have not heard diddly about it. Where is Roe "the weather" Bear? And smart/big money vs. dumb/small money - on the floor (where I worked, which proves I know nothing) the saying was that the amateurs open the market and the pros close it. The situation has changed so drastically that most of these old maxims are worthless. Performance pressure forces the pros into situations that the individual can take a pass on - ex - how much of this year's constant rotation has had legs? They are chasing each other's tails - they have no choice. And, it isn't their money. One more - Greenspan's no action - perfect. Let it find its own level w/out artificial support. I can wait. Back to the slopes - t d