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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: HammerHead who wrote (1929)	3/4/2001 11:08:10 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Respond to of 52237

I pretty much agree with that article but I don't think you can use a broad paint brush to inventory corrections and say that once those inventories are used up everything will be OK. Some sectors such as "normal" goods will bounce back however other sectors like telecom are going to hurt for a while. The telecoms are in a catch 22 situation where they HAVE to buildout to stay competitive yet can not get funding to do so. Out here in the boonies where I live, I have told my cable company, PC Direct and the phone company, who ever gets to my door first with broadband, gets me as a customer. I have no loyalty to anyone. My extra phone line costs me 35 bucks and I can get digital cable upgrade to my existing cable line for less so the phone company loses me if they don't get DSL in here quick. Direct PC will allow me to drop both my extra phone line and my existing cable etc. As I said whoever gets here first wins and the others lose. Problems is it is not cost effective for the phone guys to come out here for a population of only 9000 so they are going to lose a lot of customers soon as I am not alone in my view. If they don't come, they won't only miss out on new subscribers, they are going to lose a lot of existing ones which takes away revenue from other area buildouts they DO want to do. Also, there is a lack of spending in many sectors. I can only speak for the government but even in the Air Force our budgets have been getting slashed ever since Billy Boy got elected. We have no spare parts for planes, and last week, we couldn't even buy trash bags, TP, or paper towels for our latrines. Talking with friends on the outside, things aren't much better. I do think the PC sector may bottom out soon as I know we are still slowly, ( VERY SLOWLY) replacing our old P90-P200 desktops with PIII-750s. It isn't going to be like the old days but there will still be a steady demand for products. Basically my view is the boom is over and we will settle back into a steady healthy growth rate just as AG said. Like I said before, the perma bulls are going to go through some pain but I still think we can pull this off OK as long as all that lousy debt the banks are holding doesn't implode. In that article, they said no one saw this coming? Heck anyone reading this thread or the CFZ knew. <ggg> Good Luck, Lee