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Technology Stocks : Amazon.com, Inc. (AMZN) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Alomex who wrote (119196)	3/3/2001 11:20:08 PM
From: Glenn D. Rudolph	Respond to of 164684

Let me put it this way. There is uncertainty in predicting what Amazon will or won't do. So it is important to project best and worst case scenarios. For example a few years back a "walmart-of-the-web" was a possible best case scenario. This now looks pretty much out of the picture... Yes..you are correct a best and worst case scenerio should be projected. The problem is there were people in the stock market a few years back that believed Amazon would be "walmart-of-the-web". Based on management, inventory and financial controls or lack thereof, the best case scenerio then was Chapter 11. I never anticipated anything other than that and at this point in time, the best case scenerio is Chapter 11. This would have occured far sooner had the equity markets not given Amazon billions at such a low rate. The equity markets could give them more money and that would only delay Chapter 11. The best case scenerio is Chapter 11 and due to a brand name worth something, the worst case scenerio is Chapter 11 not Chapter 7. Timing is important so if the equity markets are generous to amazon and give them more, Chapter 11 may be delayed until the end of 2002 depending up how much they give them. If they markets are not generous, Chapter 11 will be no later than January 2002.