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Pastimes : The Justa and Lars Honors Bob Brinker Investment Club Thread -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dr. Anthony Keyodo who wrote (697)	3/6/2001 1:22:23 AM
From: Math Junkie	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10065

"I do feel we could all be learning a great deal if we could discuss the current factors that prevent a timing model from correctly tracking the market." Excellent point. Too many people want to make it personal, instead of talking about strategies. Bob has said many times that he would not bet against the model. Yet that is exactly what he ended up doing (IMO). It is clear that this is so, because the factors that he mentioned as entering into the countertrend rally calls were very different from the factors that enter into his long-term model as he has explained it over the years. It reminds me of the quote from I forget which famous investor who said that the most important element of his investing strategy was his "sitting" (i.e., doing nothing). In other words, it looks to me like the lesson is that even if one has a good model, one must have the patience to wait for it to do its job. "I refuse to compound any misjudgements I may have made by selling now." Probably a wise idea (I hope). Here is a chart that does a good job of showing the extent of the problem (borrowed from another thread): stockcharts.com[w,a]wbolnymy[pb50!b200!b!b!f][vc60][iUc20!Ua12,26,9!Lb14!Lf!Lg!Lj[$spx]] "There is a lot of bad blood out there and all the pain that goes with it." Yes, the level of acrimony has gotten high lately, and it's not only on the Brinker thread. "I pray that all the hostility I'm sensing is NOT being transferred to our families." I just saw a note on another web site from a poster who was quitting the Brinker thread for exactly that reason.