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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Shack who wrote (71169)	3/4/2001 11:58:00 AM
From: Zack P	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

<The small spec position in the S&P futures contract> Where do you find this figure? Is it available online? Thanks, zack

To: Shack who wrote (71169)	3/4/2001 9:04:57 PM
From: Psycho-Social	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 99985

Re Sentiment Indicators: Thanks for sharing info re the indicators you use. A couple of points of clarification: * It is the Investors Intelligence Survey that has ceased to be of use, not the AAII Survey. The AAII Survey works well on a 3-week mov ave basis or as part of a triad with Market Vane and Consensus Inc. * My method for choosing contrarian indicators is not based on whether they seem reasonable or "make sense" to me. It is based on a lengthy period of observation, particularily at Market highs and lows. While at Flexible Plan Investments, I had an opportunity to get historical data and do computerized back testing. All the indicators I mentioned manifest reliable contrarian correlation with the S&P for 10 years or more. Jake Bernstein's Nasdaq Daily Sentiment Index, however, was set up only one year ago. My own Stock Market Sentiment indicators and Nasdaq Business Sentiment Indices are based on media sentiment and are tested by matching their movements with the relevant Market index. One interesting finding: Intermediate Term sentiment 3mo, 6mo & 12mo has lost much of its potency in the last couple of years. Short and long term sentiment have come to dominate, i.e. show the strongest inverse correlation with Market action, with long term sentiment leading the S&P by 3.5 to 5 months. Re your 100% short position, I'm not going to try to change your mind; it's your money at risk, just as mine is. I don't follow most of your indictors too closely, except for the VIX. I know its been getting to 30-35 lately and don't see how that supports your 100% short position. Even though your other indicators may conflict, isn't it time to at least take a third or a half of your well-earned profits from being short? I have noted that my best Contrarian indicators have hit 2 or more extremes of bearishness during the past few months, but that each was near a lower low. That does suggest an underlying negative force in operation.