To: Glenn D. Rudolph who wrote (119219 ) 3/4/2001 12:11:11 PM From: Mark Fowler Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 164684 March 02, 2001 10:55 AM ET U.S. Stock Market Outlook Near-Term Prices as of close on 03/01/2001 A late day recovery in Techland saves the day. However, we think the recovery is sure to be short-lived as it was primarily the result of short covering the futures area and some positive comments concerning IBM on a major business news channel. If that wasn't enough, the Nasdaq markets' internals (high/low figures, volume and breadth) were not sufficient to sustain any follow-through. The real torpedo this morning will likely be the bad news out of Oracle (ORCL) after the close last night. The stock is quoted down sharply in the pre-open and that will likely set the tone for the day. As we mentioned yesterday the action in the Philly Semiconductor Index (SOX) gives us strong reason to believe that we are not at "THE" bottom in the Nasdaq yet. The SOX tested critical support intraday yesterday. While it was able hold that support (520) it is still very suspect. For those that have read and or embraced our A/D, Breadth thesis, which was published in a late January report, you may want to give a read to the cover of Section "C" of today's Wall Street Journal. An article entitled "Bursting the tech bubble has a familiar pop to it." This article delves into similar concepts that we dealt with in our report. Specifically, it deals with the lengthy period of time it takes for former market leaders to rebound from the massive declines they experienced. As our previous commentary has stated we think the best way to approach the market is via individual/specific stock selection so as not to get lost in the manic moves of the major averages. Please see our recent in-depth report on the expansion of the markets' breadth entitled: "Start Of A New Bull Market" for specific ideas. Levels to watch if selling gets out of hand: Dow Jones: A close below 9654 would be very negative (crimson flag) on the Dow. The Nasdaq Composite level: 2251.71 (now violated, risk below 2000, see levels below). SOX Index levels: 516.64 (yellow); 475.97 (crimson). S&P 500 levels are: 1205.46 (violated 02/23/01) and then 1137. Sentiment: Falls back below 60% to 57.4% this week but, still rate it bearish