Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: High-Tech East who wrote (71176)	3/4/2001 5:04:07 PM
From: Doug	Respond to of 99985

H-T.E: It seems to me that most of these Pundits have missed certain facts. a: When the dot.com turned to bombs , a few Petabits of traffic , associated revenues and more important the recurring demand for Comm. Eqpt/ Servers/Storage was wiped out. These cannot be regenerated by Interest rate cuts. b: Currently the gains in productivity due to the 3 driving factors of the new Economy have run into the law of diminishing returns. The 3 factors are speed, power and access. The return is Income generation for the user. Replacing a 900Mz Computer by a 1.5Gz is not likley to be cost effective. The Consumer is also not very keen to switch to Broad band as he cannot measure his gains. c: Production of Semi's using 300Mm wafers has intensified the Competition and led to a decrease in unit costs. ASICS and PLD's are on convergent paths and reduced unit cost. Max gates /chip is now 3m but rate of growth of manufacture viz density/unit surface has far exceeded the growth in design. d: Software programming is now being outsourced to India and Malaya where it is cheaper and better. Software growth is therefore down too. e: Growth in the last 10 years was primarily driven by the Internet which is owned by the RBOC's/CLEC's, NSPs. and Corporate America. These institutions were the sources for income for the majority of the Tech sector. Unfortunately these RBOC's, CLEC's and NSP's over extended themselves while trying to gain a monopoly for their share holders. Once they tanked , the suppliers of Internet infra structure were next in line. f: Box making has levelled off. Boxes account for 35- 40% of the Semi conductor sales. The fastest growing segment now is Communication . Any one in the Electronic design buisness is converging into that space. INTC has announce its entry. ASIC mfgrs are trying to break the monopoly of PLD's on communication chips. As for Optical passive and active components , there is an oversupply of Mfgrs. The smaller players are likely to be this years optronic.bombs. I see the sector going thru a metmorphis . At the end of the year , it will come out smaller, leaner and meaner. Once again, it is likely that the turn around will be closely tied to the Communication service sector .