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Biotech / Medical : Biotech - Technical Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: XenaLives who wrote (35)	3/17/2001 1:19:21 AM
From: Jibacoa	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 544

NABI: ( The following is to answer a question from Oak Tree in Peter's Biotech Valuation thread.) The "recent move" you mentioned was probably the one you can see in a 60 minutes chart that gives you some information about what has happened in the last few days: siliconinvestor.com As you can see in that chart, whenever the short term average (the green line) is able to cross above the longer term average (the red line) the stock responds, usually with a good move as if it had been "stimulated". Now print the chart and draw a line connecting the top of the prices. You should be able to notice that sometimes those lines have a downward slope and when the line is broken, it usually is because there is a change in the "trend". In that chart you should also be able to find 3 "up-gaps" (that is when the blue line representing the stock price shows a gap.)<g> You should be able to notice that after the last up-move the price (the blue bars) has remained above the averages and that the short term average remains above the longer term. That means NABI is still on a near term up-trend that it would keep as long as the price doesn't drop below the average lines. However it has given a warning signal (we can't blame it if we take into account the way the market is been recently <g> )That warning signal is because the price fell below the green short term average and when the price was able to get over that line again, it failed to go through the 6.25 level where there is a temporary "double top". Now in that chart look for the "support levels". The nearest one is the red line or longer average. If the price dips below that, it most likely will dip to the 5.25 level or the level where on march 14 the green line and the price crossed above the red line.(at the 4 7/8 level)If the price get to the 4.75 area is better to consider selling it (specially if you are trading it on a non-taxable account and are not paying high commissions <g>) Now look a NABI's chart on a daily basis: siliconinvestor.com Do the same thing as in the previous chart. How many "gaps" did you notice ? I didn't see any up-gaps. There was a small down-gap just before the end of December and another larger one at end of Jan. Were you able to notice that the price in the last "rally" was able to get a little above the Jan. H as well as the Nov. and late Oct. Hs ? Of course that was for only two days <g> and those are the next "resistance" levels that the stock has to deal with, specially the 7 level from the late Nov.H. Now look at NABI's long term chart: siliconinvestor.com Do the same thing, draw lines connecting the top of the price bars. Were you able to notice the up-trend that started in Dec.93-Jan.94 and lasted until early 1996 without the price dropping below the longer average line ? How about the down-trend that started in the first Q in 1996 and lasted until mid-1999 ? Can you see that the present down-trend on the long term chart has not been broken yet? Bottom line: NABI is on a "near term" "up-trend", but still remains on a "long term" "down-trend" And of course the "general market"(as reflected by the DOW, the NAZ looks worse <g> ), remains on a "near term" "down-trend" siliconinvestor.com And may be starting a "long term" "down-trend" (unless it gets some some strong help from uncle AL <g>) siliconinvestor.com At any rate, it is usually best not to swim against the current.<g> I hope you may have gotten some ideas about TA. I try to keep it simple myself, using 3 average lines and most of the time don't use some of the other tools that although helpful are somewhat more complex. Bernard