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Strategies & Market Trends : Gorilla and King Portfolio Candidates -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Apollo who wrote (39964)	3/4/2001 1:03:02 PM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo, About your friend who has his biggest position in Peregrine and knows all about GGaming. Did you ask him where he thinks the product is in the TALC? It's not a loaded question, a serious one. Not having looked at Peregrine closely, I suspect its revenue increase is the typical ramp of an attempt to cross the chasm if not a successful attempt. If the product catetgory has indeed crossed the chasm, it would be important to know what bowling pins have been knocked down by Peregrine and the extent to which each pin might fall in such a way that makes it easy to knock down the next one. The important questions concerning the constraints preventing the tornado from forming and what will most likely remove those constraints need to be addressed. I think Moore's comment that Peregrine's purchase of Harbinger muddying up the picture is an important one. He also opined that I should not confuse Siebel with Microsoft. Microsoft, he said, is an extremely unique and powerful gorilla, the likes of which we may not see in a long time. I agree completely. Remember that Siebel's strength is an apps technology, not an enabling technology as in the case of Softie. However, there is an important similarity between the two that is analagous; Siebel will be able to leverage its traditional CRM position to grow its Internet-based CRM and related e-business opportunities (whatever you want to call them) in much the same way, though with less strength, that Microsoft was able to leverage its operating systems to gain traction in apps. What caught my interest here, is that this guy was recommending Siebel Systems to me in the Fall of '99. A little late on the uptake, huh. :) Since you're bringing up a new topic worth discussing, I'll also mention that I'm a little surprised the interest in BEAS on the Fool's GGame thread hasn't been duplicated here. It seems to me to be a company well worth looking at for Gorilla potential. --Mike Buckley

To: Apollo who wrote (39964)	3/4/2001 10:18:36 PM
From: DownSouth	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 54805

Apollo, I am familiar with Peregrine in the market place, not the stock market place. I believe that an IT slowdown will have a particularly unwanted effect on their sales growth. Implementation of asset management systems is very expensive and the ROI is almost impossible to predict or to measure. There is lots of competition in their space. They have no particular IP on which to build BTEs, though switching costs are very high. I have no intention of considering them as an investment. I do not consider their market one in which a King nor a Gorilla will emerge.