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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Dennis O'Bell who wrote (71193)	3/4/2001 1:55:01 PM
From: bobby beara	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

Re: Regarding the NASDAQ's prospects... >>>Average end user network bandwidth is still extremely limited, in the home it's like home PC s were with 8 bit processors.>>> That may be true, but that drove issues like glw, jnpr, cien to higher highs in sept/oct, while the nasdaq was making lower highs. We have come from a period in which techs were a "new economy", immune to eco slow-down, immune to rate hikes, the semiconductor cycle was proclaimed dead by several analysts at the 2nd top in july, and many others said that it had 2 or 3 years to go. Now that the bubble has burst, people are realizing tech is cyclical, just like everything else, over the last couple of years, even my most stalwarts holdout friends who said they didn't need a home computer or internet, now have it, the laggards have mostly all jumped on board, and bought yahoo at the top, i posted a couple of months ago, that i saw an article in the newspaper that the last congressman holdout, just put up a website, the laggards are all in, of course there is plenty of potential for market penetration for computers and internet access, but this last penetration will be a lot tougher, the days of screaming blow-out earnings upside surprises are over, for a while, until investor expectations are driven way down. in the early 90's before tech became a mania, tech shares were priced for cyclicality, intel and dell had p/e's in the very low double digits. people who think that all the air has been let out of the tech bubble - all the bad news is priced in, and we should just turnaround on the upside are still in the denial phase. That said, i did get a sentiment flash today (my front page LA Times indicator) on the front page there is a 1/7th column story "US Investors Feeling Jilted Over Losses in Stock Market" in 36 point type, the bottom is approaching, but i'm still looking for a 120-175 point type Helvetica Extra Bold Headline, to put an exclamation point at the end of the nasdaq crash. b