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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lee kramer who wrote (5781)	3/4/2001 4:30:15 PM
From: Dave Gore	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6445

Lee, careful, I didn't say that exactly. I think we are still at a pivot point where we could either go down to as low as NAZ 1500 or NAZ 2500+ rather quickly. If we go down it will be a slow death with perhaps a final capitulation due to margin calls and a feeling that the NAZ is going to drop forever. Maybe even fund managers will want out at any cost, but hopefully they are smarter than that. If we get some valid catalysts, we could get a much more abrupt rally because of short covering. The problem is that there doesn't appear to be any BIG catalysts on the immediate horizon to help the long side of things. If VRTS does well in the mid-quarter update Monday, can we really expect more than a temporary rally? No, I don't think so. When CIEN surprised the Market about 3 weeks ago and sparked a rally, NT's after hours warning ultimately took the Market down way more than CIEN's took it up. Even with a few warnings starting to get ignored, I don't feel safe holding techs long yet. Maybe some financials or health-related stocks or even some biotechs, but not techs, not yet. I would rather be a little late to the party than too early and have to help do the dishes. PS - One very interesting phenomenon is that analysts the last two days have almost totally stopped issuing upgrades. This is perhaps a nice contrarian indicator that we are reaching closer to a bottom. I believe I saw 5 upgrades on Thursday and only 2 on Friday.