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To: Constant Reader who wrote (9840)	3/4/2001 5:41:50 PM
From: Poet	Respond to of 10876

Well Hi CR, Thank you so much for the information! As you can see, I'm trying to make some sense out of the glut of information that I see every weekend. This difference of opinion about margin debt levels is really quite interesting. The MS data looks like margin debt (of NYSE issues, I've noticed) is lower, but Hahn states that the data he sees from the Federal Reserve says that we're close to record highs: Additionally, CNBC made several efforts to explain away the still dangerously excessive margin debt. I don't know what numbers they were looking at, but the numbers from the Federal Reserve indicate a near record level of speculation. It's clear to me that many margined positions are going to be forced to liquidate before the markets can mount a meaningful rally. (The margin debt amounts are released one week late, so this week's +/- is not known. Wayne Angell's ill-advised predictions may have stimulated more than a little additional speculation.) The margin debt factor is, in my mind, so important to the timing and severity of a capitulation event, should we have one. I just wish I knew how to reconcile all the seemingly disparate data on it. Grrrr.