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Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: scotty who wrote (71212)	3/4/2001 9:53:06 PM
From: John Madarasz	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 99985

scotty...pretty cool, lunar cycles are in sync as well... 1st quarter almost exactly; many of the other cycles seem to have inverted here, it will be interesting to see how this resolves. A surprise rate cut seems to be the hole card. This economic picture is dubious at best. I'm right now in the middle of reading an interview w/ James Rogers Jr., one of Soros's ex partners. The book title is "Market Wizards"...the chapter is " Buying Value and Selling Hysteria". The copyright is 1990 and the commentary is eerily uncanny to todays market... somewhat prophetic in a way. An Excerpt... "Question: Is there a lot of similarities between different cases of market hysterias? Answer: It's always the same cycle. When a market is very low, there comes a time when some people buy it because it has become undervalued. The market starts to go up, and more people buy because it is a fundamentally sound thing to do. My mother calls me up and says " Buy me XYZ stock" I ask her "Why?' "Because the stock has tripled," she answers. Finally, there comes the magical stage: People are hysterical to buy because they know the market is going to go up forever, and prices exceed any kind of rational, logical economic value. The whole process then repeats itself on the downside. The market gets tremendously overpriced and it starts to go down. More people sell because the fundamentals are turning poor. As the economics deteriorate, more and more people sell. Next, people sell just because it has become the thing to do. Everybody knows it is going to go to nothing, so they sell. Then the market reaches the hysteria stage and gets very underpriced. That's when you can buy it for a pop. But for a long term investment you usually have to wait a few years and let the market base." pp. # 309 Thanks for the post