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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (43043)	3/4/2001 8:04:01 PM
From: Jerome	Respond to of 70976

Cary... a minor explanation...AMAT at 35, 32.5, 30, 27.5, and 25; If AMAT does not trail down to these levels, then what would the plan be?Suppose that AMAT stays in the range of 38 to 52...what then? Jerome

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (43043)	3/4/2001 8:09:29 PM
From: Math Junkie	Respond to of 70976

*Re: "my use of criticism might increase my potential for gain."* Heck, why else post on SI? I think I'm going to print that out and frame it.

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (43043)	3/5/2001 9:59:45 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Cary, Call me an optimist but at the targets you have indicated of between 20% and 33% off from today's levels, I think you will be lucky to complete even your first tranche of purchases on average. If so, you will do just fine on your current holdings but may end up holding more cash than you need or you may end up having to chase them on the way up. This is the reinvestment risk. We have previously discussed the benefits of selling naked LEAP puts for stocks that you are happy to accumulate at preset levels. You could sell puts at strikes approximating your targets plus the premium you would receive. I would think that this should be roughly equivalent to what you are proposing except that if the stock rises and you miss your target, at least you still get to keep the premium you have received. Thus it should be more efficient than your plan. I would be interested in hearing your critique of such an approach. Sam

To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (43043)	3/11/2001 12:19:48 PM
From: Sam Citron	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I will "round up" CSCO at 18.96 Curious how you derived this somewhat unusual price target. I am currently short AMAT at 50.875 and short AMAT Jan '03 40 puts at 9.125. I currently intend to cover my short stock position at just under 40 and add to my short LEAP put position at same time. Excellent Dan Niles interview on CNN Weekend Ed. speaking about INTC. Definitely an advocate of your "Pay Me Now" scenario. "Very bearish" on semis with Asia and Europe now slowing. Notes PSRs still relatively hi on historical trough comp basis. Sam