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To: Roebear who wrote (88342)	3/4/2001 8:15:25 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Roebear. IMO you've hit the nail on the head. No Bear Market (whether in one sector or across all sectors) I've been through or read about has never ended at "reasonable" or "fair" valuation levels whether we look at PEs, Price/sales, Price/book or any of a myriad of other standards of measurement. Absurdly low price levels are always seen by the time THE final bottom is in. And it usually takes more than one year for that to happen when a market has become as wildly overvalued as the tech stock were a year ago. Human emotion (which is by definition irrational) is the final arbiter of price extremes at Bear Mkt lows as it is at Bull highs. And most people probably agree by now that the past few years in the NAZ may be the most extreme example of a mania since the late roaring 20s. The only justification I can find for studying consumer, purchasing agent and a variety of tools for measuring stock market sentiment is that it conveys a sense of where we are in the never ending swings of the human emotional pendulum between bull and bear extremes of optimism and pessimism. The SD thread has also been a help to me in many ways. Some very perceptive and thoughtful people have posted here in the almost 2 years I've been a regular reader. But some of those I have little or nothing in common can inadvertently be very helpful in their own way as well. How much snow do you have at this point? And how soon do you see the mild temperatures returning to stay? TIA. Cheers Iso

To: Roebear who wrote (88342)	3/4/2001 8:25:44 PM
From: Big Dog	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

From Frost: We have previously discussed historical trading patterns for E&P stocks in the early months of the year. This week's increase in E&P stock prices appears to be the beginning of a rally that has typically begun in early March and lasted through the summer as investors become comfortable with commodity price forecasts coming out of the shoulder months. In the past three years, E&P stocks have increased on average between 7% to 25% from the beginning of March through the end of June. So far this year the E&P stocks as a group have traded mostly flat. The fundamentals for energy stocks continue to be very favorable as commodity prices stabilize in an economically sustainable range that delivers excellent earning potential for the companies. This year the E&P's have the added benefit of potential sector rotation as they continue to report year over year increases in earnings, contrasted with other sectors of the economy that have traded at higher valuations but are now having to reign in expectations for future quarters. We believe investors buying stocks in the E&P sector in the next few weeks can realize a 10% to 20% increase in value in the next four months if a similar trading pattern holds true this year. We recommend investment in the following STRONG BUY rated stocks with over 50% upside to our target price that have traded flat to down in the first two months of 2001: Chesapeake Energy (NYSE: CHK), Cabot Oil & Gas (NYSE: COG), Forest Oil (NYSE: FST), Newfield Exploration (NYSE: NFX), Prize Energy (AMEX: PRZ) and Pioneer Natural Resources (NYSE: PXD).