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To: gnuman who wrote (67066)3/4/2001 10:23:12 PM
From: pompsander  Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 93625
 
Contest Update....the Final Estimates.

Well, after much help from everyone, I think we have the basis for the great guess of '01 worked out. We are seeking the date of availability of a P4 system with at least the following minimum specifications advertised and available for $999.99 or less:

* P4 (probably a 1.3G, but we don't really care about the speed).
* 128M RDRAM
* 56K Modem
* 10G Hard drive (minimum)
* CD-ROM drive
* 17" monitor
* Video card (don't care about specs)
* Sound card and speakers
* Windows (some version)
* Don't care about any other bundled apps
* 3 yrs warranty on parts and labor; on-site repair not required

I think it is fair to add as a requirement that the winning system be a "new", unlimited offer situation. No refurbished, returned or retooled boxes which would in any way, legally, ethically, morally, or practically, hinder an OEM from charging the highest price they wish to charge. Dan's point that we "are almost there" is an interesting one and has generated some good dialogue today. However, the spirit of the contest is that we hit a price point where there is "unlimited availability" to the buying public. If Ford Motor wants 10,000 of the winning system, they can get them, no problem, no limitations, that day (contractually), O.K?

And the Estimates are:

Dan3............."We're already there" (see note above)
Richard Surckla,......... July 4, 2001
Blake Paterson,.......... July 15, 2001
Stuart Steele,........... August 4, 2001
Glenda King,............. August 15, 2001
Dave B. ..................September, 1, 2001
Orion, ...................September 15, 2001
Mihaela,................. September 24, 2001
Mohamed Saba,............ October 9, 2001
Capt. Rocky,............. November 13, 2001
TimeToMakeTheInvs,....... November 15, 2001
Gene Parrott..............November 23, 2001
Pompsander............... November 23, 2001
Barry Grossman........... December 3, 2001

Since Gene and I have the same date picked, I will disqualify myself if we win.....except for bragging rights.

I think I got everyone. If I missed anyone who has posted a guess, let me know and we will update. The prize for the winning guesser (forecaster sounds better, actually) is a "fistful of Starbucks coupons". My daughter's fist will the the measuring fist..she has small hands. Be assurred, however, that there will be enough for a few lattes.

Thanks, Dave, for helping with the specs. At this point I tend to think that the combination of Intel money pushing the P4 rampup and the desire of Dell (and probably others) to kickstart the return of corporate buyers at the theoretical "high end" sweet spot will favor our early guessers.