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To: Boplicity who wrote (11149)	3/5/2001 1:46:09 AM
From: Raymond Duray	Respond to of 13572

Hi Greg, Well, I see you haven't found capitulation to your liking. <vbg> I suppose the good ones from the old crop will have another day in the sun. But then I have to wonder if the process of "creative destruction" isn't getting out of hand. No sooner do we have the 3G debacle in full swoon, than the 4G trumpets are beginning to sound: Message 15447742 Message 15447902 So, who's gonna be left standing in 2004? Beats me. I think I'd like your dad quite a lot. :) The question in my mind is - what is it that one would research if one were to want to research the future of a sector like telecom? Would it be the macroeconomic factors affecting the financial markets, the categorization of end user demand, the arcana of standards bodies politics, the bleeding edge of technological development, the number of design wins per public company, the honesty of managements, the balance sheets, income statements and cash flows of the possible winners, or what the sell side analysts are telling John Q. Public is the next "strong buy". My shortcut is to pay strict attention to the analysts. They almost invariably are leading the public down the wrong path. So, I tend to agree with you, mebbe it's time to load up. With the analyst community downgrading everything in sight, including the Verranzano Narrows Bridge, I'd say it's definitely time to think about going long. For the sucker rally. I'm partial to this laconic view of the long term, from Warren Buffett's Chairman's Letter to Shareholders, 1997: We will not ask you to adopt the philosophy of the Chicago Cubs fan who reacted to a string of lackluster seasons by saying, "Why get upset? Everyone has a bad century now and then." Prescient, eh? Best, Ray :)