Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : The Options Box -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9856)	3/5/2001 8:59:54 AM
From: hobo	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 10876

Good morning Lee, I will stick my nose in and make a couple of comments in re: gold. I have no problem accepting that the market has been suffering the effects of a bubble and that we may even see excesses to the downside as much as we saw to the upside. I just simply can not see the "gold bug scenario" where all currencies completely fall apart, US, Euro, etc. As some of the gold bugs claim it will happen. In a world dominated by speed in transactions and easy transfer of assets, I can not simply see the practical side of holding on to gold as a "store of value." In addition, as you mentioned there are so many interest against it that I can not simply see it "explode" as some gold bugs seem to dream about. If we were to reach such a state, then for all intents and practical purposes, it would not matter anymore as there would be a total collapse of civilization as we know it. If so, I would say, weapons would be a more valuable asset to own. Indeed, gold would be a liability. Under such scenario, you would have to physically hold gold coins and/or the bars themselves. I doubt very much that under such situation of total collapse of the financial system, holding gold mines/companies certificates would do you much good anyway. I just do not see such happening. Only a few years ago the gold bugs were claiming that due to the enormous deficit the government was responsible for, such scenario would be very possible... Now we have enormous surpluses and "paying-off" the deficit has been considered, only to realize that if we do that, then such action would be detrimental to the US Dollar, since countries like to hold US treasuries as reserves, (rather than gold). --At least they get interest paid, plus do not have to pay for storage and security of the yellow metal. Have we run excesses? --YES. Are we facing Armagedon (or whatever)?... I doubt it. We continue to forget that in spite of all the problems we have in the US, this country is by far, a lot more productive than any other country. I mean you have the entire European continent band together to form an economic block... and only then can they compete with the US... barely. Besides, as you mentioned too, gold as a speculation may be wild and short lived... one would need a sharp eye to know when to get in and out. Form one excess to the next ? I am not attempting to paint a rosy picture, I just simply refuse to believe an scenario where there is a total collapse of all that has been built throughout history as a social structure. Only then would I believe that gold would return to its former status of "store of value". If so... you better have more than a few broker's statements indicating ownership of shares in gold mines and such... Better get some actual gold bars, coins, weapons, a ranchette, (with a few cows too), ah yes, and a copy of Uncle Ted [Kasinsky] manuscript too, if lucky, it might include plans to build a cabin in some far away and wild place, like say... Montana, or the Northwestern Territories, or even the Pampas... (plumbing not included) -ggg- All my opinion of course. Futures are up about 25 pts or so...

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (9856)	3/7/2001 12:23:41 PM
From: hobo	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 10876

Hi Lee, In reading the stock attack thread, I read the list of Oil & Gas/Natural Resources companies that you posted in response to a request from another poster. After reading the Hahn newsletter where he makes some comments about energy, plus my own outlook in regards to the subject, I decided to put that list together in my TC2000 charts and place it on the "watch list" dept. As of last night... the 30 companies, after 4 days in the list showed 2 advances, 8 decliners. a combined advanced of 1.65 % (and an annualized advanced of 150 %) Today, I have not run the scan, but I can tell you that the advance has been substantial already. I have sold naked puts on XTO and trying to get same on APA Thank you for having posted that list, for the record, here is the list: THIS OF COURSE DOES NOT REPRESENT A RECOMMENDATION OF ANY SORT. and anyone's DD is encouraged before taking any action. XTO RRC DNR APA EPEX KMI OKE TMR APC APC WGL SUG ATG BR ENE LD DVN SJT IDA WGR TRU PNY NFG MCN HGT EOG DOM DYN(I added this one) CRT BPT LRT Actually, it is possible that I may have added more than DYN.