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Gold/Mining/Energy : Gold Price Monitor -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lorne who wrote (64949)	3/5/2001 10:31:18 AM
From: Rarebird	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 116764

<Will a market that has been intentionally deflated react the same way as one that has burst due to " irrational exuberance?> Yes, IMHO. The fact that the gold price is as low as it is here, is not very bullish for the equity market either. I view gold as a lot more than just crash insurance. I've always subscribed to the view that "the way up and the way down are one and the same way."

To: lorne who wrote (64949)	3/5/2001 11:16:36 AM
From: IngotWeTrust	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 116764

Hi, Lorne! RE: Your Q: Will a market that has been intentionally deflated react the same way as one that has burst due to " irrational exuberance? IMCO, NO! I'm speaking from the frame of reference of time. There is an OLD and yet to be proven wrong graphic called the Pattern of Progress. Ken Gammage has it on each and every newsletter for the past 30+ years. Basically it looks like this: Long slow, bumpy climb to the peak, and ONE hair-raising sell-off + a bounce (or two on the rocks below the summit), and then another hard selloff to a base of some sort, in order to start the cycle over again. The long slow bumpy climb portion has historically been 3X the time-frame length as the sell-off plunge time-frame takes. It would appear that due to communications, day trading, momo plays, something, that bone jarring sell-off plunge, has been compressed time-wise...and the ascents last longer. Don't know why yet... So, while AG deliberately deflated and signalled he was taking the punchbowl away, the actual dastardly deed took approximately 12-13 months of time to accomplish the deflation. If you recall, depending upon which expert you are quoting, the ascent took between 10 years and 15 years...+_ 3yrs<grin> To put it in "humanistic terms," think of your answer in the framework of a human anecdotal experiences: medically...good health one minute, flat on your back the next and needing extensive physical therapy to recover. things/material goods...happy homeowner one minute, devastating fire in 24 hours. Clean-up and then the rebuild, replacement or moving back to the "happy homeowner status" is a long slow ascent again. psychologically... abused woman or child takes crap for years...decides not to take it any more and moves out, gets therapy, accepts helping hand-outs, to rebuild and retool life. That takes years of just living it down, let alone successfully, to rebuild self-esteem, monetary base, health, view on life, etc. SO, I submit, regardless of the venue, the cycle of progress is the same...slow ascent, precipitous cessation of climb, even to the point of bone crunching/portfolio devaluing fall, at least one bounce if not two, and then the long ascent starts over again. The question AG will be most harshly judged by in the light of history is this: Why didn't he use interest rate policy to slow rate of ascent and create a plateau instead of the recession he deliberately triggered? Is he fallible, or just a mean and tired old reprobate? Who died and left him "god" anyhow...? All the best... Yes, I've already read Rarebirds answer...and as is the case...now you have to make up your own mind where the kernel of truth is in each reply<g>...something I recall you are very good at in the first place!!! gold_tutor yep, that's smee...on Silicon Investor, eBay, Yahoo, you name it....I'm everywhere<g>

To: lorne who wrote (64949)	3/5/2001 3:16:36 PM
From: Rarebird	Respond to of 116764

Lorne, I agree with 49er that equities almost always decline a lot faster than they rise. The Question: What is fair value for the NAZ in this deflationary environment where earnings are deteriorating rapidly, along with revenue growth and where the bulls are getting knocked off one by one each passing day? I would say under a thousand at least; but it could take a few years to get there. I've always taken history seriously and gold has always done well in a deflationary environment. All this talk about a second half economic recovery is pure BS. How on earth that is going to happen is beyond me. I agree with Richard that there is a very strong irrational anti-gold force in the USA. But I think that eventually "they" will have no other choice but to embrace gold. What else can they possibly embrace? The economic downturn has just begun here. All the bullish brokers and analysts have their jobs and livelihoods at stake. Even some Bears have turned bullish, but to avail for the sake of the country. A Bear Rally is possible through short covering. But it is not sustainable.