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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (88353)	3/5/2001 3:34:50 PM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 95453

re: SSB's late cycle plays... Good common sense report there - the drillers, select service & seismic are the plays. FGH ? ... it's a triple, maybe better on the upside; or a BK penny stock on the downside. But in the low $1's - one has to look at it as an "option" on survivability; it's priced like one... I let my stops do their work & I'm out and planning to stay out on that one...but it is tempting...simply amazing that perhaps "THE" shining star company of the 97-98 Boom; is teetering on survivability... simply unbelieveable... I'm looking to start "fading" virtually everything I'm holding here again, the minute we see any block/volume selling at 135ish resistance;but should we get some momenteum rotation due to some new highs & a break of the OSX thru 140 - I'll still be looking to "fade it" into the first sign of weakness. I think the "fair value" trading band here is 115-135 for now... with the downside being the OSX getting taken down along with a broad market selloff (with that OSX 100, 94 intraday low as support) - with Tech's Q1 reporting in early April being the high risk period to this market. Maybe the end of March Fed Cut may offset that risk; but I think the Pro's will be selling tech into the end of the quarter traditional fund tape painting that is going to occur - along with any Fed Cut pop; just prior to disappointing Q1 reporting from Tech that I think will take the NAZ to new lows... April could be real ugly ... So tech may be a nice short-term long-side trade here into the end of the qtr fund tape painting & the Fed Cut; but I'll be selling into it & looking to flip short. ...looking at some tech long here - just for that trade. Tough call on the OSX - we're in a fair value range here imho - a couple of laggards still cheap; but I'm still a seller into all rallies; as I think it will be another 2 Qtrs before we get the project spending to impact earnings to take the OSX to new highs & the next trading range level of perhaps 135 - 165ish. I'd agree with Big Dog that the underlying activity for drillers & service "IS" 10 Foot Tall & Bulletproof... but, that's not the problem; as it was in the spring of 1998 as well. It's the slowing US Economy & the carry-over effect to a slowing globabl economy that a slowing US will bring. I'm not so sure the OSX get's taken to new highs, or a higher trading range untill we get BOTH - signs of an improving, or turning economy AND OSX CO's blowing Q1-2, earnings estimates out of the water with analysts then giving upward revisions to 2002 numbers. Untill then - I prefer to just be no more than 50% in & continually selling all rallies & stopping out at resistance & continually rotating into laggards. Holding RIG SLB CAM PGO NR here & a few driller calls ... and everything is for sale - everyday - allday... I think if the US economy rolls out of a soft landing - that the OSX ramp is going to come off of Q2, or Q3 reporting at the earliest - with co's commenting on great visibility for 2002 - maybe OSX 165 there & talk of OSX 200 by year end 2002 if the cycle expansion keeps moving along... but; "It's the economy-stupid" & the corresponding worries of such; as far as new OSX highs are concerned right here - right now imho. I think the worries over the slowing US economy trump the traditional March to April/May rally - as I think it's going to stall at OSX 135ish again...and do so - very soon. PS: Golds/XAU holding stronger & longer than they have in quite some time... interesting indeed ~ US dollar is the story & it's coming down imo. Later ~ that's my .02c ramble.