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To: Earlie who wrote (75728)3/5/2001 5:37:06 PM
From: Zeev Hed  Read Replies (3) | Respond to of 436258
 
Earlie, I was just looking at EK as a potential "Dow dogs" play (no, I decided to forego that one), but what struck me is that the valuation based on "traditional dividends" measure is astounding (that is probably why it is not a good play.). Last year, EK paid just $1.76, or on $44/share a rate of 4%., some people may think this to be a "fair" return. However, EK also spent $1.8 B to acquire it own shares, or $6/share. Now, if I owned EK and they decided to pay this $1.8 B in dividends, I'll have to pay close to 40% taxes on that. To get the equivalent of $6 per share, EK would have had to pay out $10/share in dividends. Thus, the real after tax dividends on EK last year was a stunning $11.76, more than 25% of the current stock price. Any company that pays out 25% rate (and of course does not make that money), is problematic for me, it indicates that they do not know where to redeploy these funds in the business to bring in good returns.

The reason for bringing this up, however, is the wondering around here why the Dow is not collapsing with the rest of the dividends-less companies that are being cut down to size (or 20% of previous size), a lot of "Value Investors" are looking at the "real dividend" rate of these companies and saying, that is not a return they can easily get elsewhere. Of course, I would not be surprised if EK was the worst case amongst the Dow, but last year when I got back into MRK in the low $50, I did the same calculation, and had a real dividend rate in excess of 5% (which I felt, was quite a fair price if that companies continues and grow at 15% plus year after year). I wonder if any analyst has gone through the effort of recalculating the real yield of the Dow taking into account the after tax valuation of these buy backs.

Zeev