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Technology Stocks : SDLI - JDSU transition -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pat mudge who wrote (559)	3/5/2001 7:38:43 PM
From: szabel	Respond to of 3294

I think ill wait until NUFO drops to $5 before looking to buy. NUFO said it would slash about 22 percent of its jobs in China and 8 percent in the U.S. as customers cut orders. It also cut its revenue forecast for the current fiscal year to $170-190 million from $240 million. New Focus Reduces Forecast, to Cut Jobs in China, U.S. - at TheStreet.com Mon Mar 5 NUFO [external] New Focus warns of revenue shortfall - at CBS MarketWatch Mon Mar 5 NUFO New Focus to lay off 330 workers - Reuters Securities Mon Mar 5 NUFO New Focus Lowers Revenue Guidance for 2001 and Schedules Conference Call To Discuss Business Outlook - PR Newswire

To: pat mudge who wrote (559)	3/6/2001 10:45:05 AM
From: LJM	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 3294

=DJ BANDWIDTH BEAT: It's Not Too Soon For Risk Management 05 Mar 11:39 By Michael Rieke A Dow Jones Newswires Column HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--I asked a bandwidth trader at the Competitive Telecommunications Association convention last month if his company was talking to equipment manufacturers about risk management. No, he said. That surprised me, because the need for risk management for telecom equipment vendors seems obvious. Others, including Williams Communications Group (WCG), think so too. Carriers are spending less on fiber for network additions and on equipment for unlit fiber. Part of that cost-cutting effort is a direct result of lower prices for bandwidth: With less money coming in from capacity sales, carriers have less to spend. Lower bandwidth prices must also have something to do with carriers seeing their access to investment capital dry up. I can't count the number of telecom analysts who have called to ask about bandwidth prices. Investment banks and venture capital firms also want to know. As carriers cut back on spending, equipment manufacturers like Lucent Technologies Inc. (LU), Corning Inc. (GLW) and Alcatel SA (ALA), to name just a few, cut back earnings projections for the year. It seemed to me that as bandwidth prices dropped, equipment manufacturers would see their sales drop. If that's the case, manufacturers as well as carriers could use risk management tools to protect themselves from at least some of the financial slowdown they're now experiencing. Maybe that trader just didn't want to tip his hand when he said he hadn't thought about risk management for telecom equipment vendors. If so, he'll be disappointed to hear that some of his competitors are already wise to the idea. Williams Already Leveraging Relationships Williams hasn't been playing with the energy companies in the bandwidth trading market, but the company has been leveraging its long relationships with both carriers and equipment manufacturers. In an interview with Dow Jones Newswires, Sharon Crow, vice president of bandwidth trading and risk management for Williams Communications, said her company had a hand in designing a lot of the equipment used in networks. Williams operates a large equipment testing laboratory at its headquarters in Tulsa. It's part of what the company calls its "technology farm." That baseball metaphor describes how the lab is used as a testing ground to make sure new equipment is ready for the big leagues. The technology farm has opened the door for Williams to talk to vendors about risk management, Crow said. At the same time, the broadband unit of Williams Communications, Vyvix Services, has opened the door for risk management talks with the broadband sector of the industry, she said. But with little, if any, liquidity in the bandwidth trading market, is it too early to talk about risk management? "Smart, bright people will get in when markets are relatively illiquid and inefficient," said Rajan Chopra, managing director for bandwidth trading at Prebon Yamane (USA) Inc. "That's (when) you can really ... arbitrage the process and develop opportunities that are unique to a particular time." Prebon provides brokering and risk management services in financial and commodity markets around the world. In an immature market, there may be fewer opportunities for risk management but the need is greater, Chopra said. And so are the margins. He pointed to the interest rate swap market in the early 1980s. The margins were huge. Five years later, he said, the whole business got commoditized and the margins squeezed. But Chopra sees longer-term promise for risk management in telecommunications. "This is such a big opportunity," he said. "We could keep digging for years and years and there will always be something new." As difficult as it might be to believe today, some of those opportunities could come from escalating bandwidth prices. With less money going into telecom, there will be less fiber laid and lit. But demand continues to grow. That's what happened in the crude oil markets just a few years ago. Producers were moaning because prices were around $10 a barrel. Companies cut exploration and production as demand continued to grow. But in the 1990s, excess production was gone and prices more than tripled in a year. For oil consumers smart enough to hedge when the prices were low, the rebound in oil prices was much easier to accept. Anyone who thinks commodity prices only go down needs to check the recent history of crude oil, natural gas and electric power. -By Michael Rieke, Dow Jones Newswires; 713-547-9207; michael.rieke@wsj.com (END) DOW JONES NEWS 03-05-01 11:39 AM