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To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (75828)	3/5/2001 7:06:59 PM
From: Lucretius	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

we're so doomed...

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (75828)	3/5/2001 8:20:21 PM
From: Shack	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 436258

HSY is my number one food short. Pricey, low dividend, Technically in a very well-defined rising wedge. Good risk-reward with a stop around $66. dshacket.homestead.com Gonna price some May puts.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (75828)	3/5/2001 9:02:12 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Heinz...are you a currency God as well?....if so, I have a couple questions (for you or anyone): To what extent do the following factors contribute to a strong(er) U.S. dollar vis-a-vis the Euro: (1) More efficient mobility of capital and labor (thinking here of the Greek worker who may not move to France because he doesn't speak language, doesn't want to leave family, etc) (2) Better overall growth prospects- labor inputs (ie., most Western European nations have very low population growth rates...outside of perhaps some Southern European nations- Italy excluded- that may have some decent/good population growth rates, but, still, you run into the mobility problem listed in (1). By comparison, both native-born and immigrant workers in U.S. seem mostly willing to move where the jobs are)...(3) Oil paid for in U.S. dollars (4) Countries where U.S. dollar is de-factor currency...including potential future dollarization in Central/Latin America (5) Better current and continued de-regulated environment for capital in U.S. (6) Military superiority (7) Cultural superiority (I'm not talking in absolute sense....I'm talking about the current preference, rightly or wrongly, for all things American in much of the world...most of it junk (McDonalds, movies, rap music, etc)......(8) Continued greater social costs in Europe (greater increase in retirement age population in Europe vs. America in next several decade, preservation of higher unemployment, standard benefits).. Others?? Anything I left out? What effect to these factors have in maintaining the U.S. dollar's strength vis-a-vis Euro now and in the future, and how would you "weight" them vs. the (pre-dominant?) factors of interest rate differential, inflation differential (supply), and balance of trade. Are the factors listed above, in your view, too small an influence to be consequential, and if so, why? Thanks in advance...hope the question(s) makes sense.

To: pater tenebrarum who wrote (75828)	3/6/2001 8:20:01 AM
From: AllansAlias	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

I posted last Thu and Fri that one could interpret the move off the bottom last week as a relatively big turn -- you know, of higher degree. When we had that dip on Friday it opened the window to us sliding down rather quickly. As I pointed out a number of times, the Friday low was the key to going down sharply and it was never threatened. NASDAQ futures are up 50 or so as I type. If indeed we are pointing down in a move that is part of Friday's melt, then there can be no big rally this morning. This seems unlikely. So, let's presume we rally this morning. It could be a correction of higher degree, of the downtrend off the Jan 31 top, or, it could be the start of a larger move off the bottom. I think an EW argument can be made for both. (Anybody disagree?) I am particularly taken by the lack of follow-through in non-tech. They appeared to me to have rolled. Early days there yet. If they can close GE above $46, I'll be impressed, particularly if it's a weekly close. Cheers. ps: Bank of Canada lowering rates today.