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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Big Dog who wrote (88364)	3/6/2001 9:22:32 AM
From: SliderOnTheBlack	Respond to of 95453

Japan acknowledges "Recession"... Europe next ? ...the riffs of "Asian Contagian" part deux are permeating the aire of late & now talk is that Europe is the next economy to rollover. No one can question that present Oilpatch activity is "10 Foot Tall & Bulletproof" - and even that the Nat Gas situation may put an "activity" floor under a traditional cyclical rollover for perhaps another 12 mos... (or will it); but the market often begins to discount cyclical rollover here as much as 9-12 mos in advance with a permanent exit of Institutional investors who traditionally have done a much better job of exiting prior to cycle rollover than energy specialist investors & enthusiasts. So the "$64 questions" is simply - will the momenteum players (who must continue to flow into the sector and "STAY" for us to have any hope of new OSX highs)begin to discount the "worry" of another slowing global econony where "Demand" trumps the "Supply" card once again...and will they do it soon ? fwiw... in the "lesson's learned" catagory: "Don't fight "demand" trends in cyclical commodity sectors" I think perhaps the "best case" - if not even the "only" case for the OSX to break to substantial new highs - ie: it would take a move to OSX 165ish at a minimum to begin to support a positive risk vs reward scenario for investor/traders to remain invested here - as we've allready had 2,3 opps to exit & take profits at OSX 130+ and another 15%ish move up from here - with the cyclical rollover as the downside risk - doesn't offer much reward as oppossed to the significant risk. It's awfully hard in this economic environment not to continually sell into rallies at the first hint of exhaustion & begin to formulate a "permanent" exit strategy to this cycle - untill US & Global economic slowdown worries are completely & totally put to rest...and I see NOTHING on the horizon to suggest that they have been, or will be in the near future. Untill then imho: "The best offense - is a good defense" ie: sell the rallies, wait patiently for pullbacks & continually rotate into laggards & later cycle plays - with one eye continually glued on the "permanent" cycle exit door & this looks to be a time & place to just remain partially invested. ... again; just my .02 cents ~ PS fwiw; I think one of the "Great Shorts" here is going to be the land drillers & the next rally to new highs; regardless of if it's next month, or in Sept - will be a "cold hard short - slam dunk" imho. These stocks have everything including the kitchen sink, the lucky rabbits foot & another 18 mos of non-stop "boom" priced into them and they are NOT cheap here on forward looking numbers. When they near their analyst price targets - they're #1 on my short-sale radar screen and imho - anyone who lives, eats & breathes the Oilpatch - 24/7; owes it to themselves to make money on the downward slope of the cycle as well. THAT - is what makes cyclical investing so profitable; as the 1st turn of the downward slope of the cycle is often a 30-50% move & shame, shame, shame on anyone who's not allready focusing on that as part of your gameplan. Cyclicals owe us in both directions & the downside; is perhaps in reality; easier to trade than the maturing peak cycle top that I think we're in here. Ciao~