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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Razorbak who wrote (1006)	3/5/2001 10:39:22 PM
From: Gottfried	Respond to of 23153

Razor, thanks for the Greenberg column. Unlike so many 'me too' articles it was worth reading and I'll quote it elsewhere. I liked >I don't expect a spike up, just an orderly advance from depressed levels.< But it may be too much to hope for. We seem to go from one excess to another. Gottfried

To: Razorbak who wrote (1006)	3/6/2001 12:02:43 AM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Razorback, RE: <<why Doug, whom I have called a "bear's bear," has turned positive on many tech stocks.>> Razorback, I know that the author's point was not yours but I want to respond to the viewpoint of the writer. I am always suprised at how the analysts can find "silver linings" or, alternatively, "dark clouds" when the market has already evidenced a potential change in direction. I agree that it looks as if the market has built in a lot of bad news and if that is all there is, it wants to move up. It may rally and, in fact, I bought some tech on the thought that it may move up. The forces that brought the tech market down, however, were not just forces created by the overvaluation of techs viewed in the best of possible futures. In the face of a nas mrkt which is acting as though it wants to move up and is just gathering strength to do so, I think we should be very wary of the fact that the energy problems are not solved and that no solution is in clear view, that the balance of payments is still a problem which will have to moderate at some point, that some of the money which was placed in the market by overly confident and under experienced investors will not come back to such investors, that inflation may be a reality that will reveal itself in the econ numbers in the near future, and that there is still room for the panic selling that we have not seen yet. I expect we will see very convincing reasons for why the mrkt is rising and why it is falling, many times from the same people at almost the same time. When we have a better idea on what to expect in terms of power-energy and in terms of inflation, then we should listen. In the meantime all of the technical and common sense discussions on how the market is getting ready to make this or that move or how investors are too bullish or too bearish is just static unless we get the really big panic selloff that sends the nas and the techs below the level that even a dismal energy and inflation future would justify. I'm not suggesting that we don't trade and I know that many of us are trading and are viewing these stocks in the timeframe of days or weeks. I am suggesting that we don't take these stocks home to meet mom yet, unless we, like some cultures, want to get engaged now and then wait a few years for the bride to get old enough to marry. I sometimes see myself in a large herd of sheep moving back and forth across the landscape in waves of uneven, grey, everchanging shapes, herded by laughing analysts astride huge horses breathing puffs of white mist from their nostrils as we make that fatal turn toward the great cliff and .... Well, you get the picture. Tune in this fall for the exciting conclusion to "As the Herd Turns, A Sheep's Story." Ps, thanks to Razorbak, (I'm thinking of cutting back on bacon in your honor) Don England, (it scares me when you have that glass of wine and post and I understand it all) Telemarker, (great posts on several subjects and a very nice zinger) Quehubo007 and others for taking the time to post their thoughts. Ed PS, Thinking about giving up bacon made me hungry. I've changed my mind Razorback. I decided to give up asparagus in your honor instead.