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Technology Stocks : JDS Uniphase (JDSU) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: puborectalis who wrote (19242)	3/6/2001 9:29:16 AM
From: Tunica Albuginea	Respond to of 24042

One Bear's Bullish Bet thestreet.com One Bear's Bullish Bet By Herb Greenberg Senior Columnist Originally posted at 11:14 AM ET 3/2/01 on RealMoney.com I'm being nothing more than a facilitator here, but I think it's necessary because the info is so compelling. It's the copy of a letter Doug Kass, of Seabreeze Partners, sent to one of his clients. Doug is an old friend whose thoughts on individual stocks have paralleled many ideas in my columns. (I say "paralleled" because the ideas didn't come from him!) He's a bright guy with a mind of his own. He's often quoted in Barron's, and recently has been quoted with some frequency by my pal Aaron Task. Late Thursday Aaron commented on why Doug, whom I have called a "bear's bear," has turned positive on many tech stocks. (And to think I thought I'd always be the first to catch a bear turning bullish; good job beating me to the punch, Aaron!) This letter, which adds to the increased flurry of disagreement in the market, merely spells out some of Doug's thoughts. Again, these quotes are from Doug Kass -- not me: Fear is a necessary ingredient to a bottom and a necessary catalyst to a market rally. Fear abounds, in some measure, abetted by concerns that Greenspan doesn't understand the gravity of the economic downturn. I think that view is B.S. He is the maestro, and has gracefully maneuvered the economy down to a manageable (and inflation-free) level, and has also gracefully eradicated speculation (a concern that I have held for some time). Stocks are starting to ignore poor earnings announcements, e.g., AMCC (AMCC:Nasdaq - news) missed big and the stock rallied. This means that the market has sufficiently discounted the eroding fundamentals. Same goes for GLW (GLW:Nasdaq - news) (layoffs announced? stock rises by 10%) and JDSU (JDSU:Nasdaq - news) (layoffs). Wall Street analysts have given up hope. Tech stocks, which represented 29% of the S&P a year ago, now stand at 18%? 'Oops I did it again' ... the lowering of ratings on brokerage stocks by two major firms this week as ANALysts wake up to tepid trading volume and absence of underwritings ... where have these lagging indicators (analysts) been? The stocks had dropped by almost 50%, and now they recommend sell? ... MORONS. [Did I say Doug was opinionated?!] Increased talk of a 1500 Nasdaq by previously bullish strategists and observers. Increased queries into my partnership, which is short oriented...I have been inundated with interest. Low volume sell off over the last five days, a sign that selling is drying up. The broader market started to underperform the OTC, as investors irrationally sell what they can and what is liquid. I hope this is helpful, remember I have been bearish as hell for two years. That said, I don't expect a spike up, just an orderly advance from depressed levels. Thanks, Doug.