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Technology Stocks : Siebel Systems (SEBL) - strong buy? -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Boplicity who wrote (4560)	3/6/2001 10:57:30 AM
From: Mike Buckley	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 6974

Greg, I could discuss the reasons I disagree with any number of points you made, especially with the confidence you have in the way you perceive very specific cause-and-effect relationships in the market. I won't though, out of respect for your and my time. You see, it's all about buying stocks at the right time in the cycle. Yes, but there are different cycles and it's possible to make great money in many of them, not just the cycles you tend to focus on. For the long-term cycles I tend to focus on, I believe Frank is absolutely right. If you're right about your reasons for the short-term plays, more power to you. However, to state that you know "exactly" the reason Siebel is going down I think is a bit of a stretch. My guess is that after rethinking that statement, you probably think it's a stretch too. The fact is that the only reason we know a stock goes down is because people are willing to pay fewer dollars to buy it. That's not the question being addressed; the question being addressed is why people are willing to pay fewer dollars and I don't believe anyone has the absolute answers. --Mike Buckley

To: Boplicity who wrote (4560)	3/6/2001 11:11:41 AM
From: Uncle Frank	Respond to of 6974

>> I disagree with you. Of course you do. If you didn't, we wouldn't have any fun arguing <lol>. Maybe I'm just jealous that this is such a great opportunity for writing puts and such a lousy one for writing calls. >> What I said is exactly the reason SEBL is going down. But it's also the reason everything has been going down. It's not company specific, so it offers no insight that might lead to useful action with regard to buying or selling sebl. >> Why is ORCL not going down anymore? Because the warning ORCL release is priced in. In other words investors have the digested the facts and priced it in already. Are you calling a bottom on orcl and saying that now is the time to bet the ranch? >> Obviously, perception is also influenced by price direction. That's called feeding on itself. Bingo! I think that's 95% of what's been going on for the last few quarters. Folks are buying or selling by trying to guess what the stock will do. I'd venture to say the great majority of them don't have a clue about the enterprises that underly the stock. uf