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Strategies & Market Trends : Market Gems-Trading Strong Earnings Growth and Momentum -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Jenna who wrote (5925)	3/6/2001 4:12:50 PM
From: gladman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 6445

CMVT & CHKP were sweet today, you can always count on them long during an up day event.

To: Jenna who wrote (5925)	3/6/2001 6:53:20 PM
From: puborectalis	Respond to of 6445

Intel's Grove Doesn't See Rapid Snap-Back in End Demand By Duncan Martell SAN FRANCISCO (Reuters) - Intel Corp.'s (NasdaqNM:INTC - news) Chairman Andrew Grove said on Tuesday he does not expect demand for semiconductors to snap back rapidly, noting it will take some time for the downturn in the chip industry to end. ``I don't expect the end demand to snap back,'' Grove said on a conference call and Webcast hosted by Lehman Bros. and its semiconductor and PC-company analyst Dan Niles. ``We are in this state for some period of time.'' Grove was not more specific. The semiconductor industry has undergone a vicious reversal of fortune since the fall of 2000, with virtually every type of semiconductor company warning that first and even second- quarter sales in 2001 will be less than forecast. But most are holding out hope the second half of the year will bring more robust growth in the U.S. economy. While the short-term may be rough sledding, Grove, an American business icon and Time magazine's Man of the Year, remains bullish about the long-term future of the high- technology industry. ``This industry is the fundamental industry of our times -- not just chips, not just Intel, but the high-technology industry,'' Grove said. ``For those of you that have a stake in there, I'd like to share my confidence and enthusiasm for this industry long-term. So keep the faith.'' Grove also defended the 33-year-old chipmaker's plans to spend $7.5 billion this year on capital spending, more than double the amount it spent just two years ago. He cited a downturn in the chip industry in the 1970s when Intel pared back on capital spending, but Japanese chipmakers did not. When demand did snap back, Intel did not have the capacity in place to build enough memory chips to meet demand, Grove said. Intel later exited the dynamic random-access memory, or DRAM, business partially as a result. ``My biggest regrets were always that we were too conservative on capital,'' Grove said on the conference call. ``As a result we weren't ready to follow the demand curve when it snapped back.'' Intel and the chip industry are undergoing one of the biggest changes in decades. Not only are chipmakers such as Intel moving to new process technology, called 0.13 micron, they are also simultaneously moving to dinner-plate-sized silicon wafers from salad-plate-sized ones. ``We are in the middle of a very important technology cycle,'' Grove said. ``The companies who cut back on investment now, when the recovery comes, will be stuck with 8-inch capacity ... compared to other players who moved to 12 inch.'' In addition, Grove, born in 1936 in Hungary and who joined Intel in July 1968 when it was founded, said that in the past few years there may have actually been too much spending on information technology. That runs somewhat contrary to the thinking that there can never be enough bandwidth. ``For a number of years, technology had a huge momentum -- technology buying and manufacturing had a tremendous investment cycle going,'' Grove said. ``I think people loaded up with not just physical inventory but got ahead of themselves in capacity building and network capacity building.'' ``We built in an overcapacity of all physical things,'' Grove said. ``Maybe demand only changed in a relatively minor way but it exposed we had built up an excess capacity in the total system.'' To eliminate this overcapacity, Grove said that demand has to come up or investment levels have to come down until ``the two levels cross, or the investments of the past several years have become obsoleted'' by new technology. ``Both of these require some time,'' Grove said. ``If you accept that that's what's happening in the economy all together, that leads to a slow recovery.''