Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (43242)	3/6/2001 10:35:50 PM
From: robert b furman	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

Hi Gottfried, First off I expect a turnaround after it gets terrible and things look like they'll never get better,Prices of stocks get ridiculously CHEAP. That's how its been in the past - so that's what I expect.But maybe this time it is different - Ergh shivers me bones to even think that, let alone say it. I am having a REAL HARD TIME ACCEPTING THE FACT THAT "We experienced long term positional hold investors "understand that earnings will be off for 2 quarters (note 1 of them will be over the end of this month). Then as we look over the trough we will be rewarded for our long term patience and a rally will pursue and make us all rich. Although that makes sense, I don't perceive the average market mentality that way - let alone the HOT SHOT FUND MANAGERS who want to bag a bonus this year and may not be willing to say it's "OK" to have dead money for 1/2 a year !!??!! I think a headfake that LOOKs like the "GOOD OLE TIMES ARE BACK" is a great TRAP - to fear. I look at JUNE of 1998 and it floated along with low VIX high complacency and then viscously shook all of Sept - had a nice headfake, and then quickly and violently dipped to new lows - by Oct 8 a VIX spike bottom occurred and the market never looked back for over 2 years. The amount of the pain endured, will determine the degree of rise we get in the next bull.So I'm for shakin and paying the price.Having lousey earnings upsets - poor B2Bill stats, - opaque future earnings vision, and cheap valuations. Then out of that fear will be born a rally with duration and legs. Looking over the next 2 quarters and holding positionally is something only hard heads like myself would do and that does not make the overall market. Last but not least - we've dropped to long term support on the NAZ and it has held. Any shakeout worth it's salt has to violate support for the very short term. IT MUST DO THIS TO ACCOMPLISH IT'S PURPOSE - SHAKEOUT THE WEAK ( those who bot high and are nervous and prone to margin calls ). It sounds ugly and I wish it to no-one. I have endured it before and I expect it now - maybe I'm getting cynical in my old age - but I just think that's how this game gets played. To work on the hopes of those who think it will come back soon - is a pretty good scheme to whip it up even better. We'll know when it happens - We'll have" BLOOD IN THE STREETS" -remember Cohu at 12 (pre-split) Asyst in the 5's(it's cash level) OH excuse I forgot - It' different this time.HEHEHE Notice how NVLS(and BRKS) are up to their 200 day moving average( over their 50dma) -unlike any other semi equip - not Cohu, not Asyst,,not Amat-(they're just surpassing their 50 dma).http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=nvls There's my clue - if they lead it's time to take risk and leverage out.If they fail they're both great shorts(@49-NVLS) to 30-35 in a matter of just day's. That's my gut feel and I'm all long hopin for a break out -like everybody else - I just don't feel good about looking out over poor earnings. The shoes don't fit and I think I'm being fed pablum. YICK Would like your spin. Watcha think? I'm off to buy cars for 2 days - will check in around 4:00 a.m. before I leave. Best of trading to you! Bob Edit: just learned JDSU has warned - that could do it - Another Island reversal pattern.If it works like the last one did - we could bust 2000 and get this show on the road. BWDIK