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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Fred Levine who wrote (43246)	3/6/2001 5:40:12 PM
From: Fred Levine	Respond to of 70976

Sorry for being out of order.. TechStrat Insight – 5 March 2001 3 Unix Servers: Accelerating 52% Slowing 24 Same 24 Unix servers look solid though not as spectacular as in previous years. Used equipment from failed dot-coms is finding its way onto the market at 30 cents or less on the dollar. Supply Chain Mgmt Software: Accelerating 26% Slowing 4 Same 70 When Nike blames its earnings shortfall partly on i2, at least you know supply chain software is important. We see a number of startups in the Valley looking to take supply chain software beyond what i2 has done. PCs: Accelerating 32% Slowing 26 Same 42 Although weak, these figures represent an improvement from last year’s survey. Windows 2000 will drag some hardware with it, and the typical 3-year replacement cycle should begin kicking in late this year. ERP Software: Accelerating 26% Slowing 12 Same 62 ERP is more mature but should improve coming off a tough year, one reason we like SAP. Outsourcing: Accelerating 26% Slowing 20 Same 54 Outsourcing remains a megatrend, but users will hesitate to make such a major decision in this uncertain environment. Printers: Accelerating 12% Slowing 22 Same 66 Printers look weak because they are viewed as discretionary purchases. Mainframes: Accelerating 15% Slowing 30 Same 55 Similar to the last ten years’ surveys, mainframes look soft. IBM’s G7 cycle should help through the first half, but we don’t see many new loads going on to mainframes. Consultants: Accelerating 16% Slowing 42 Same 42 Consultants will be hardest hit in this difficult period. Agree or Disagree Rate on a scale of 1-10 (10=strong agreement, 1=strong disagreement) whether you agree or disagree with the following statements. Our move to Internetize our company won’t be slowed by a weaker economy. Average: 7.2 Users agree with the view that companies can’t stop using Internet technologies because of an economic downturn. The Net is too important to competitive advantage and webification streamlines internal processes and saves money. So activity will not come to a standstill, and strategic projects will continue. We are getting handhelds for at least some employees. Average: 6.6 We’ve argued that appliances would be big. IT managers are facing the same issue as with PCs in the early-1980s: users are buying stuff on their own and IT wants to take control. We are interested in watching Linux developments but don’t consider Linux enterprise-ready. Average: 6.6 We’re not sure which part of our statement CIOs agreed with. It might be that Linux isn’t enterprise-ready, which it’s not. But once Oracle Financials runs as well on Linux as Solaris, watch out. Interest was higher in Europe. PCs and printers are discretionary purchases. Average: 6.0 Pretty good agreement here and consistent with our finding that PC and printer spending would be mediocre. Storage is a non-discretionary purchase. Average: 5.9 Not as high a rating as we’d like but not bad. Storage will be one of the last items reduced, which doesn’t mean it’s immune but it is protected. We are ready to invest in wireless technologies. Average: 5.6 There’s interest, but with immature technology and longer payback the spending won’t occur this year. In an economic downturn, we get more conservative and buy from industry leaders. Average: 4.8 From fred-- aside from tech not being dead, I read this survey as being positive to EMC and TXN, which aside from AMAT, are two of my biggest holdings. fred