Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43259)	3/6/2001 9:33:56 PM
From: A.L. Reagan	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 70976

I traded back in to join Jacob on the near-term SS of AMAT today when it started churning down from 51, hit it at $50-3/8. Looked a lot like a double top when it couldn't take out February 15 (today looked like a virtual replay of 2/15). Also SS DELL today. Both trading plays, based on what I perceive to be irrationally premature optimism. A poster here PM'd me a very instructive chart on the relationship between the book-to-bill rate of change, and stock prices of AMAT, and it appears there is a bit of time between now and whenever the stock turns up. W/r/t Andy Grove, he is probably spot on in defending increasing capex during a downtown from a LT strategic standpoint, but WS can only see a few quarters out. To rack up big numbers I think the AMAT's of the world need new fabs coming on line. Now, I understand that technology upgrades aren't exactly chump change to AMAT, but I question whether they are sufficient to really drive the stock. (Plus the houses have been out in force this week cheerleading both the semis and the equips, and that's a good sign the ST bloom may fall off the rose quickly.) Will use trailing stops to protect profits same as last time out.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43259)	3/6/2001 9:36:58 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Cisco says sales outlook brightening By Corey Grice Staff Writer, CNET News.com March 6, 2001, 3:55 p.m. PT news.cnet.com SAN FRANCISCO--One of Cisco Systems' top optical executives said the networking giant is now able to better forecast its sales because most major carriers have finalized their annual budgets. Carl Russo, vice president for Cisco's optical networking group and formerly chief executive at Cerent, told attendees at a Thomas Weisel Partners investment conference here that Cisco has "improved visibility" now that most carriers have committed to certain spending levels. "They've clearly all downsized their budgets, but every major carrier has a fixed capital plan for this year and that's improving our visibility," Russo said. In recent years, some carriers had some flexibility to spend more on new gear and in the past even continued spending through the seasonally slower November and December months, he said. Reduced telecommunications spending and uncertainty has gripped the market, with most carriers rethinking their initial capital expenditure plans. This has led to a downturn in the fortunes of several networking hardware manufacturers, from Cisco to Nortel Networks. For example, Cisco missed quarterly earnings estimates last month and announced that the company's sales would be flat for the next two quarters. But most analysts and industry executives remain optimistic that carriers will eventually continue to build the infrastructure to support Internet traffic and other advanced communications services. Analysts suggest the spending, though reduced, will increasingly go toward new optical systems, high-speed broadband gear for business customers and hardware for metropolitan areas rather than older, traditional communications equipment. "There's a bifurcation in the market. There are pockets of growth, though carrier spending is down," said Hasan Imam, an equity analyst at Thomas Weisel Partners. "There are select areas that are still doing well." Cisco executives remain optimistic that most of their optical products will continue to sell. Russo said the company, known for its Internet routing gear, has made inroads among larger carriers with its optical products and now collects roughly 80 percent of its sales from larger carriers, which represented about 20 percent of the company's optical business just a year or so ago. Cisco now has 600 customers for its optical products, which make up less than 10 percent of the company's revenue, Russo said. "There is an enormous amount of business out there for us that we're closing," Russo said. "And they're ever-bigger deals with ever-bigger carriers." Separately, Banc of America Securities, an investment banking firm, downgraded Cisco shares today to a "buy" rating from a "strong buy" recommendation. Analyst Christopher Crespi reduced his fiscal 2001 earnings-per-share estimates to 60 cents from 63 cents and for fiscal 2002 to 70 cents from 75 cents. "We believe the current slowdown of North American carrier spending, as well as reduced (information technology) budgets, will likely lead to a longer-than-expected transitional period before resumption of normalized growth," Crespi said in a report Tuesday. "Europe also is starting to show signs of weakness." Stock in Cisco gained nearly 4 percent to close at $24 despite the downgrade. Cisco shares, which have headed south since last September, have traded as high as $82 and as low as $21.94 in the past year.

To: 16yearcycle who wrote (43259)	3/6/2001 10:24:11 PM
From: Jacob Snyder	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 70976

Depending on where I cover, I may go long, too. And, as always, I'll post my trades in real-time, to ensure I get my fair share of congratulations and ridicule. You're thinking of going long on AMAT over 50? In a bear market, the only thing worse than buying the dips, is buying the rallies. And, as your 200W moving-average indicator is telling you (are you listening, or is your hearing selective?), the Nasdaq is in a bear market. JS@it'sjustvoodooanyway.edu