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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Gottfried who wrote (1058)	3/6/2001 9:49:43 PM
From: cnyndwllr	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Gottfried, on a serious note, I agree with you that the time to enter a down market is long before all of the concerns that drove the market down are clearly ameliorating. On the other hand, I do think that the time to stay out of it is when there is downward momentum, there is reasonable dropping room below and the problems that drove it down may be worsening with no clear path to equilibrium in the near future. I am engaging in limited trading, holding some long stocks in tech that I think are story stocks or are undervalued and which have semi-stablilized on down days, and am happily holding keg and rdc with some confidence that they will outperform most other investments. Who knows, keg and rdc may actually continue to increase in price? I think that there is no economic reason for the tech market to rise from this level at this time. The upward pressure is from the belief that tech has fallen so far and will, as it has in the recent past, recover. If that comforting bit of conventional wisdom is ever questioned by a large number of investors, the question will turn from "how long will it take to recover" to "will it recover before I lose more than I can afford from an economic or psychological point of view." People may begin to question the soundness of the economy and ask whether the stock valuations in tech are supported by income models and a much slower sustained rate of world econ growth. When that happens, or if that happens, I want to have enough of my chips left so that I can take the big leap and make a buy that I am comfortable holding through any remaining bottom. I am extremely bullish on tech in the long term and on the ability of American companies to "tech the world." The only question is when it will happen and who will have the chips to play the game then. Some may think that time is now. I'm still in the "not yet" camp. I may well be wrong. If I am I will miss a portion of the first part of the runup. If I am right, I will own a lot more of the tech revolution when it turns tech into dollars. One thing for sure, this market is not one that lends comfort to those who predict these things for profit. Ed PS read Fisher. I tend to see things in a similar way but he could do a better job of explaining the "why" so that we could track his thought processes. Maybe his next article will do that. PSS I can't believe that you have razorbak shorting stocks, telemarker warning and investing in REITS, Don England oozing concerned questions, (don't know why I used oozing, Don, but I am now rather committed to it g) and me in partial cash, and you have to go read some guy named Fisher?