Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Strategies & Market Trends : MDA - Market Direction Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: lurqer who wrote (71454)	3/9/2001 4:07:17 AM
From: Psycho-Social	Respond to of 99985

Re 40yr Demographic Cycle: An interesting and well-thought-out analysis. A couple of points for your consideration: 1. Between the 1/66 high and the 11/68 high, the S&P gained 15% on a nominal basis, the Dow lost 2%, and the CPI was up about 9%. Between 11/68 and 12/72, the S&P gained 11% from high to high, the Dow 7%, and the CPI was up about 15%. Thus, the inflation-adjusted Market was essentially neutral between 1/66 and 11/68, but between 1/66 and late 72, the Dow actually lost a significant amount of value. 2. A WSJ article of 3/8/01, A24, states that the new census numbers suggest that there have been an estimated 5 million illegal immigrants to the U.S. during the 90's. Together with Dent's questionable stats showing a huge spurt to 1.85 million legal immigrants in 1990 (and then a sharp drop in succeeding years), these 2 factors, legal and illegal immigration, have the potential to distort the demographic stats I've been using to forecast the Market between 2000 and 2010. Using Dent's assumption of age 30 as the average age of an immigrant, a significant number of legal and illegal immigrant from the past 11 years have turned, or will soon turn 40. In the year ahead, I'm going to try to get more clarification on recent immigration patterns.