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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?


To: Jurgis Bekepuris who wrote (12143)3/18/2001 2:24:53 PM
From: TimbaBear  Read Replies (2) | Respond to of 78614
 
Jurgis....Would you share your thoughts regarding ORCL?

I just did my own analysis on it and have some concerns after reading the 10Q filing covering the most recent 6 months of operations. First, I get a negative Free Cash Flow of -.082/share, so they are losing money doing what they do. Second, they reported negative Cash from Operations of -$265.836M about which, in their "Management's Discussion" they say:"...The negative cash flows from operations incurred during the first six months of fiscal 2001 primarily reflect the payment of taxes related to the gain on sale of Oracle Japan stock that occurred in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2000, partially offset by improved profitability and a decrease in trade receivables....." The problem I have with this statement is that it appears to be intentionally clouding the issue. After all, their income before adjustments to cash flow wouldn't have been nearly as high if it weren't for the gain on the sale of assets, therefore the tax which was deducted from operating results was due to non-operational activity and therefore rightly deducted and the resultant operating cash flow loss shown reflects operating performance and still hasn't been addressed. I don't like it when management blows smoke and this has damaged their credibility in my eyes.

Third, I get a NetNet valuation of $.61/share.

Now, I do like that their revenues have grown 14% and that they have maintained their 10% level of R&D spending. But they went from a reserve for doubtful accounts of $40 million a year ago to $94 million for the period just reported and that period was over before this latest downturn has happened.

Unless you can give me some insight (and I admire your thinking on investments), I think ORCL still has a ways to drop.

Timba