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Strategies & Market Trends : Sharck Soup -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: DaiTN who wrote (10955)	3/8/2001 9:07:28 AM
From: smallcapmaven	Respond to of 37746

Yeah dropped like a rock BUT looks like the clowns may try to bump AFOP up at the open... IMO the CC is WAY over optomistic...Just last month the company was expecting the Revenue for the first Q of 5% sequencial growth over the $8.8M or $9.34M total...NOW their revenue is only $7 to $7 1/2M for the first Q but they have not revised downwardly which IMO is untenable...Since the DWDM was supposed to be the growth area and now that is LOWERED how will this be possible...The OPIS products are passive systems and and are in the 'mature' slowing area that all the other companies have shown some visibility will be much lower...Remeber last Q or 4th Q 2000 was had a back log of $3.3M that was to be pushed out in Q 1 2001... My model shows that the company is far too optomistic to the growth for the next 2 years... DWDM has not seen the predicted growth so what the company sees going forward is more foggy than they said...If this stock goes up sell it into the ground...This is a dog with many fleas!!! Even if the company meets its (ridiculously optomisic IMO) goals which there is quite a bit of doubt since the next Q revenue is already 30% light the company still trades at a 2002 forward P/E of 100 and 2001 of 300... This company has lost some credibility IMO because now they are expecting a penny to nil for the next Q eventhough revenue is down 30%??? Since their competitors trade at much cheaper metrics and have been setting achievable goals I maintain my sell position...Which I will be selling into any strength... You may get a chance again...