Silicon Investor (SI) -- The First Internet Community

STOCKTALK

We've detected that you're using an ad content blocking browser plug-in or feature. Ads provide a critical source of revenue to the continued operation of Silicon Investor. We ask that you disable ad blocking while on Silicon Investor in the best interests of our community. If you are not using an ad blocker but are still receiving this message, make sure your browser's tracking protection is set to the 'standard' level.

Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: UnBelievable who wrote (76863)	3/7/2001 8:09:48 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

IP's p/e is a cycle bottom p/e, as its earnings should be lowest at the bottom of the paper biz cycle ...only IF the cycle has bottomed of course. an argument can be made that barring a further deterioration in cyclical companies earnings, the present value of future earnings streams should be higher due to falling interest rates. all this is however invalid if the k-winter is beginning...a marker we have to be on the look-out for: a failure of the rally in the cyclicals would be an additional piece of evidence that the k-winter is on. marker number one is the failure of recent rate cuts to spark a stock market recovery. the Dow is by no means 'cheap' though, no matter where we are in the k-cycle.

To: UnBelievable who wrote (76863)	3/8/2001 1:08:39 AM
From: oldirtybastard	Respond to of 436258

The thing about the DJIA is although they can manip it and keep from tanking, they also can't really bust it upward too much because everything in it is already trading at perfection, especially the highest weight ones. I'm sure what they would like to do is split the high ones and then run some of the others putting them in the new heavyweight camp. That way it can just stairstep from where it left off, rather than falling as it should. The things that have made it a horrible trading vehicle also make it the ultimate ponzi, but then they can always sub out the weak sisters and throw in MSFT and INTC..ooops, bad timing. With only thirty stocks, it's not farfetched to think someone could punch in 10,xxx once on a computer in the morning and have the DOW close there (within reason). indexes.dowjones.com