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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (2240)	3/7/2001 8:20:50 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 52237

Greenspan to Banks: Keep Credit Flowing Wednesday March 7, 6:01 pm Eastern Time By Glenn Somerville <<WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan said on Wednesday it was not surprising that a weaker economy was making bankers wary about lending, but he urged them not to go overboard. ``Lenders and their supervisors should be mindful that in their zeal to make up for past excesses they do not overcompensate and inhibit or cut off the flow of credit to borrowers with credible prospects,'' the Fed chief told an Independent Community Bankers of America meeting in Las Vegas. Tight credit can take a heavy toll on the economy because businesses and consumers who cannot access funds tend to cut back on spending and investment. Greenspan, who turned 75 on Tuesday, canceled a trip to the Las Vegas gathering because of a head cold, and instead delivered his remarks through a satellite video link. He said bankers grew complacent during the record stretch of prosperity since the last recession ended in March 1991 and suggested some might be overreacting now as they encountered problem loans that were hurting their profits. ``Not surprisingly, in response to past laxity, a weakening economy and general economic uncertainty, banks have tightened their lending terms and conditions,'' Greenspan said. He said the tightening trend began to show up in late 1999 in lending surveys conducted by the Fed and has persisted into 2001. That coincided with weaker bank profits, which fell slightly during 2000, snapping a 10-year string of rising earnings. Greenspan said big banks' earnings likely will shrink further this year but their problems should be ``modest by historical standards'' and relative to their resources. BANKING SKILLS SLOPPY? ``It is interesting to note that the length of the current expansion, coupled with the absence of problem commercial loans until recently, has led to some depreciation in both bankers' and supervisors' skill in handling weakened or troubled credits,'' Greenspan said. The U.S. central bank remains acutely mindful of problems caused by the ``credit crunch'' of the late 1980s that lingered into the early 1990s, when banks were reluctant to lend so that economic growth was hampered and recovery from the 1990-91 recession was prolonged. ``Such problems either are a faded memory or are outside the experience of some lenders and examiners, despite the serious credit work-out problems of the late 1980s and early 1990s,'' the Fed chief said. Earlier, the Fed said in its periodic Beige Book summary of national economic activity that there was ``sluggish to modest'' growth in January and February, bolstering hopes for more interest-rate cuts. The economic summary, issued ahead of a scheduled March 20 policymaking session, noted that ``banks in some regions across the country have tightened credit standards.'' Greenspan said the current period of uncertainty was causing both banks and examiners to brush up on prudent lending practices and examine their ability to measure risks presented by some borrowers, especially those who are heavily leveraged. Greenspan's theme was a familiar one. On December 5, he told a community bankers' meeting in New York that it would be a mistake to stall credit for the wrong reasons as nervousness grows about the economy's future. ``Though lenders will be viewing new transactions with greater caution than they did a couple of years ago, both bankers and their supervisors should now guard against allowing the pendulum to swing too far the other way by adopting policy stances that cut off credit to borrowers with credible prospects,'' he said at that time. MUM ON INTEREST RATES Greenspan made no comment on the outlook for U.S. interest rates on Wednesday, just two weeks before the Fed's policysetting Federal Open Market Committee meets to plot interest-rate strategy. The Fed's Beige Book only bolstered expectations that a third round of interest-rate reductions this year will follow the March 20 session. Stock and bond prices closed solidly higher on anticipation that credit will keep getting cheaper until the Fed is convinced the economy will safely skirt recession. ``The Beige Book confirmed there is economic weakness but we're not falling off a cliff,'' said John Roberts, head of government trading at Barclays Capital in New York, who is confident that the Fed will cut interest rates again. The president of the Dallas Fed, Robert McTeer, said after the Beige Book was issued that its findings suggested the economy will avoid falling into recession -- in which national output of goods and services contracts. The report said manufacturing was suffering but that consumer spending, which fuels two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, was slightly stronger in January and February. The last summary, issued Jan. 17, said the economy was in a generally slowing trend and found fewer promising signs than the latest one. ``It's a more positive Beige Book than the last one. The last one was really bad,'' McTeer told a Lions Club meeting. ``This is more mixed so I think it offers some encouragement.''>>

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (2240)	3/7/2001 8:24:59 PM
From: Jack T. Pearson	Respond to of 52237

Consumers can't keep increasing debt at a 12.6% annual rate. They will have to cut spending. Where will that put the economy?

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (2240)	3/7/2001 8:26:19 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Maybe they were using credit cards to finance margin debt...

To: Lee Lichterman III who wrote (2240)	3/8/2001 8:51:16 AM
From: Lee Lichterman III	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

By L3_Aka_L3 on Thursday, March 08, 2001 - 12:11 am: Edit Just a post showing what many are forecasting or seeing... From: John Madarasz Wednesday, Mar 7, 2001 8:38 PM Respond to of 3409 Hahn has a chart with 10-20-30 week cycles all due this week, plus a 34 day due 12th. Check it out. Plus I have a nine week cycle low due this week, FWTW. There is also a 50 day cycle that projected a low around the 5th. It has been invalidated due to a new low set in that time frame and now projects to the 19th or so. The compx would need to break above the downtrending resistance (at 2500 ) by the 19th to make the most recent bottom a valid one... important support at 2150-2000. The 50 day cycle has been very good at predicting interim lows, back to june of 2000, but is usually followed by a re-test...and it's always been a higher low each time. Heinz is targeting the 14th, and feels that if no capitulation type event occurs by then, a better case will be for a stronger move up, sans major down draft, into early april. Then a strong down draft. He has been keenly aware...a pleasure to watch. Also, As of Feb 22, Pete Eliades has a nominal 10 week projection for the comp at 2022.60. If it reaches this target, he will reveal "something completely unprecidented in our experience"... but not until it does-g- I hope it makes it just so he gives it up-gg- FWIW I think it will. Good Trading, JM Message 15465038