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To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (76899)	3/7/2001 8:40:13 PM
From: Haim R. Branisteanu	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Joel, the full moon works wonders for cyclicals Haim

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (76899)	3/7/2001 8:49:58 PM
From: Michael Watkins	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

does it suggest that cycle watching could have become like charts...losing effectiveness. I have to disagree completely. As the top of the market was being set in tech, I ran across dozens and dozens of people bemoaning how technical analysis "no longer worked". The issue was not that analysis no longer worked, just that their methods were appropriate, even though many were very rudimentary (buy the dip!), only for the bull run. TA didn't stop being effective - their view on the world had so much bias in it and their methods reflected that. TA is just measurement. Its not prediction, IMO, as so many wish it to be. Sure, certain markets are at very key points and it seems like a flip of a coin where things go. For those that want to "predict" these times are painful. For those that will measure and react, its just another day on the job. Ok, back to die die die market market market now now now. LOL

To: Box-By-The-Riviera™ who wrote (76899)	3/7/2001 9:29:20 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

recall, we had a short term cycle inversion in late Jan. - and in early Jan. for that matter, due to the panic rate cut (that averted a capitulation into Jan. 9). if a cycle turn arrives a day or two late, no problem...it's not an exact science after all. if it inverts, then one has to adapt...no matter which t/a tools one uses, they're all just guide posts indicating probabilities after all. the current psychological backdrop i would describe as follows: the bulls are generally less certain of themselves - but they sure haven't capitulated. the bears are scared of a bear market rally...or rather, are embracing one. and those generally in the know (who are usually unruffled by short term fluctuations), i.e. the commercials, the specialists and the corporate insiders, are either massively short, or selling as fast as they can. so the alleged 'excessive pessimism' or selling exhaustion can't have arrived yet, since on the other side of these trades are the weak hands, that have not yet given up and puked.