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Strategies & Market Trends : Stock Attack II - A Complete Analysis -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2281)	3/8/2001 9:52:42 AM
From: Casaubon	Respond to of 52237

reducing her tech allocation by 5% while her holding got a 50% haircut is a joke.

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2281)	3/8/2001 9:57:11 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Paul....the Fed govs...several that have been quoted in recent days....sure don't seem concerned about a deeper downturn here....they are all talking about 2nd half recovery, economy showing signs of strength, etc.. Of course, Dow is benefitting....but Naz is not (Naz need money pumping.....inflate those assets).... What a tease the Naz is....just hangin' above that gap...could crack.....could hold and rally higher and test/break 2050......hope we find out soon...this narrow trading range BS is deadly to moochers like me..

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2281)	3/8/2001 10:13:22 AM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 52237

Paul, let me keep playing devil's advocate for a moment.....Sketchy analogy: Dot.com was to big-name tech as big-name tech is now to the Dow... Most analysts thought the damage in the dot.com world would have a limiting effect on most big-name tech (revenue/earnings/stock price)....we heard constant pronouncements that dot.com's only made up 5-10% of sales....demand strong enough in other areas to make up for it....etc...obviously, the chain effect was much greater than 1st assumed (even Yahoo got it wrong.....and underestimated how much biz they could attract from other sources to make up for vaccuum of dot.com sales).. Right now, Dow companies are telling you things are going to be OK (sales, revenues) this year? But will they really? With the virtual lock-up in tech now.....that certainly affects some banks, and consumer spending.....and what affects some banks..eventually affects all banks (given the interlocking, incestuous relationships).....on another thread, an article was posted on how banks are now "marketing-to-market" credit line rates...in order to make up for losses/fewer profits in other areas....who get's hurt the most when the borrowing costs on lines of credit go up? Hmmmm.. Japan is a nightmare.....Europe is saying "we haven't seen any signs of weakness yet".....Europe still has not felt export-drag of higher Euro..... Perhaps I'm missing something here...but I don't see the fundamental case for a recovery in cyclicals in the Dow yet.....just think this is flight-to-safety, "I've gotta put my money somewhere" stuff.....not, as NY Prez McDonough just said, "a sign that a 2nd half recovery is coming"... Naz falling into gap now...could be interesting...

To: Paul Shread who wrote (2281)	3/8/2001 2:05:12 PM
From: stockman_scott	Respond to of 52237

Fed Chiefs See Improved Economy in 2001 Thursday March 8, 12:50 pm Eastern Time By Laura Jacobs <<OLYMPIA FIELDS, ILL. (Reuters) - The U.S. economy is not contracting and will likely stage a rebound from its current weakness later in 2001, two Federal Reserve officials said on Thursday, less than two weeks before the central bank's next interest rate meeting. New York Fed President William McDonough and Chicago Fed chief Michael Moskow, in separate speeches on separate continents, said nothing to derail analyst expectations for a hefty half-percentage point cut in short-term interest rates at the central bank's next meeting on March 20. But both officials downplayed recession fears. McDonough said the U.S. economy, while still expanding, will likely be weak in the first quarter but will not contract. Recessions are commonly defined as two straight quarters of contractions in growth. ``I think the question is what is the first quarter likely to be, which is fairly likely to be quite weak, probably slightly positive,'' McDonough told reporters in London after delivering a speech to the British Bankers Association. Moskow, for his part, said the U.S. economy was not in a recession but said the greatest risk facing the world's largest economy remained weakness, not inflation. ``I don't personally think we're in a recession at this time,'' Moskow told reporters after speaking to the Prairie State Foundation in Olympia Fields, Ill. But in a comment that echoed other Fed officials, he added, ``I think the balance of risks are still toward weaker economic growth.'' CAUTIOUSLY OPTIMISTIC Moskow and McDonough both are voting members on the Fed's policymaking Federal Open Market Committee this year. Responding to mounting evidence of a rapid slowing in the economy, the FOMC cut rates by a half-percentage twice in January, bringing short-term interest rates to 5.5 percent. In his speech, Moskow said inflation would likely remain contained, suggesting that Fed officials are not feeling a significant enough threat of higher prices to hinder them from cutting interest rates further later this month. ``We recognize there are downside risks (for the economy),'' he said. ``But we're cautiously optimistic that inflation will remain in check, while economic growth will return to higher levels by the end of the year.'' Moskow said there are advantages to changing interest rates at the Fed's regularly scheduled policy-making meetings, reserving inter-meeting moves for special circumstances. ``There are advantages to having rate cuts at the meetings,'' the Chicago Fed chief said. ``But there are times when it's necessary to move more quickly,'' he said, adding he would ``never rule out'' changing rates between meetings and considered the two times the Fed had done so in his 6-1/2 year tenure at the Chicago Fed ''appropriate.'' Market speculation heated up last week that the Fed was likely to move between meetings -- a rare event -- but congressional testimony by Fed Chairman Alan Greenspan dashed those hopes. Greenspan, too, said he preferred rate cuts to come at regular meetings. The U.S. central bank surprised investors Jan. 3 when it cut interest rates after a conference call almost four weeks before its next scheduled meeting. INVENTORIES EYED Both Moskow and McDonough said their expectation for a rebound partly hinged on a quick decline in firms' inventories. As the U.S. economy rapidly lost steam late in 2000, companies, which had ramped up production to meet soaring demand, suddenly found themselves with large stockpiles and no buyers. McDonough called the inventory correction ``rather sharp'' but added it may have further to run. ``I don't think it has finished bottoming,'' he said. Moskow said the buildup in firms' inventories was ``an important part of the forecast puzzle,'' but said companies appear to be quickly bringing inventories in line with slowing demand thanks to improved technology, which quickly alerted them when demand began to weaken. Moskow also noted that higher energy costs, which have threatened to spark inflation and taken a chunk out of consumer spending, were a risk to his rebound forecast. ``Energy supplies relative to demand are expected to improve,'' he said. ``But supply pressures have not retreated fully and could hold the economy back. Further shocks could cause trouble.'' Energy costs have risen in recent months due to increased demand and lower supply. He said flagging business and consumer confidence could also knock a turnaround off its tracks. ``The recent drop in consumer confidence is expected to be temporary,'' Moskow said. ``But there is a risk that it will linger and reduce spending. And on the supply side, business expectations could also be a risk.''>>