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Technology Stocks : Cisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pass pass who wrote (49656)	3/8/2001 11:06:58 AM
From: Stock Farmer	Respond to of 77397

Using historical PE to gauge price is like using a scale to gauge height. A shift in interests from marathon runner to couch potato (or vice versa) would trigger erroneous conclusions. John.

To: pass pass who wrote (49656)	3/8/2001 11:27:20 AM
From: PMS Witch	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 77397

Since IPO, calculated on expiration Friday, CSCO had an arithmetic mean of 52.6 PE. Cheers, PW. P.S. The high was 154.3 (Mar 2000) and low 16.5 (Jul 94)

To: pass pass who wrote (49656)	3/8/2001 11:34:12 AM
From: Wyätt Gwyön	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 77397

I think Cisco, given its premiere position in high tech, could merit a trailing PE of 30 times net trailing earnings of 44 cents. That is very generous, I know, and would put Cisco around $13. That is more than twice my buy target of 6 dollars, but I am hoping to buy at a bargain price.

To: pass pass who wrote (49656)	3/8/2001 11:52:58 AM
From: RetiredNow	Read Replies (4) \| Respond to of 77397

For the entire CSCO public history from 1990-1999, their PE has averaged 50. Then it went bonkers in 2000. Now in 2001 it's around 40. So we have regressed to the mean. I would really like to see the PE stay at the revenue growth rate from now on, so we can get some stability. For Fiscal 2001, Cisco will have grown about 55% from the previous year, assuming that the next two quarters are flat sequentially. Then in 2002, we can expect growth of anywhere from 35-40%, if the economy recovers. So do the math and you have a good idea of what the price should be.