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To: Perspective who wrote (77157)	3/8/2001 12:18:56 PM
From: Terry Whitman	Respond to of 436258

There are numerous commercial REITs listed on exchanges. Duke Realty and Simon Properties are a couple that I know of. It would be hard to find one for a localized area I'd imagine. This dismal scientist says 15 states are already in recession, and 8 more on the cusp according to his unemployment studies- hoosiertimes.com

To: Perspective who wrote (77157)	3/8/2001 12:21:30 PM
From: UnBelievable	Respond to of 436258

NSM Beat by .07 on Lower Sales

To: Perspective who wrote (77157)	3/8/2001 12:37:13 PM
From: prosperous	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

That is what I have been thinking too looking at all the real estate being built in the Portland/Hillsboro area. If I remember right this area, has been among the top in the country in terms of new home licenses etc and IMO (which could be wrong) the real estate is about 30-40% overvalued compared to its normal valuation. My understanding is that 30-40% overvaluation is where real estate typically peaks in an up cycle in reasonable places :-) (it did in the early 90's in New England).

To: Perspective who wrote (77157)	3/8/2001 12:38:48 PM
From: pater tenebrarum	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 436258

i fully agree with your view on this, but admittedly have no idea at the moment which stocks would be the best proxies to short. one would have to look at the portfolios of various REITs and judge that on a case-by-case basis. one should definitely NOT go and just short REITs without deeper analysis...i expect e.g. that REITs that hold health care facilities and old age homes are likely to be a thriving sector regardless of how parlous a state the economy may find itself in in the future. the first ones to feel the pinch will clearly be the office property holders and commercial RE holders in general, and as you say, those that have linked their fortunes to the hi tech boom are probably the most vulnerable. in that sense, California and Seattle based REITs should be on the top of one's list. i'll see if i can get some information together, and will post what i find out on occasion.

To: Perspective who wrote (77157)	3/8/2001 12:59:44 PM
From: Andrew G.	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 436258

Bobcor FYI: REITs: Shaken in Seattle. From TheStreet.com thestreet.com He also lists office, industrial and apartment REITS with ticker symbols. Here are some prominant REITS & RE related stocks: wre AVB BXP eop eqr fr hiw krc spk 2 key factors to confirm a recession in place : - Increased unemployment - Decline in value of Real Estate RE is the most overvalued asset in the US right now. Homes are up over 50% in 3yrs in my area. In the markets: the DOW must absolutely start loosing steam. It is already overvalued and there is little to support. When the flow into 401K's from paychecks starts to dry up we should see a real decline in the indices.