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Technology Stocks : Qualcomm Incorporated (QCOM) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: marginmike who wrote (95447)	3/8/2001 1:03:08 PM
From: marginmike	Respond to of 152472

Claude take into account that I am as bearish as bearish can be. The only longs I own are gold or Debt.

To: marginmike who wrote (95447)	3/8/2001 1:50:54 PM
From: foundation	Respond to of 152472

"My concern is that 3G gets pushed off long enough that something else steels some of Qcoms gusto." Ironically, Q's bane - the committee-based standards process - requires any emerging technology, including, for instance, OFDM, to take a measured and time consuming journey to acceptance and application by vendors and carriers. Though research is required, it's a simple process to remain abreast of new technology prospects. And progress is, by definition, slow. "I think 3G wont end up in half the places its planned right now. why? Because there wont be demand for services beyond 1xrt/HDR." Not to put too fine a point on it, but the 1xev family (dv and do) will be fully compliant imt2000 certified 3G standards. Both will actually far exceed performance specifications established by the ITU. A dearth of demand for services beyond that provided by 1xrt/HDR might be an argument against the need for 4G... "I also think the buildout will continue to be delayed as money becomes scarcer and the recession worsens." For Europe? Perhaps... but pain has a wonderful way of centering the mind... clearing prospects for options not previously considered... as spectrum sits on the shelf. Europe faces, in my view, a rather large problem. Their upcoming upgrade, GPRS, is incremental, and may not provide sufficient incentives in the form of speed or services to WOW customers. A meaningful upgrade is years off. How will they spur demand for replacement handsets in a saturated market? But the third world, Asia, and selected cdma carriers elsewhere are perhaps in a very different boat. Sprint and Verizon and Alltel can upgrade for a fraction of the cost that T and Cingular can, while gaining significant competitive advantages. And it's interesting to note that cell phone usage did not diminish during Japan's recent recessionary periods... I'm not sure we, as Americans, fully grasp the role the wireless handset plays in Asia. It's said, that in recessions, invest in what you eat and smoke. Communications may be included in this axiom over time. In Asia ---- China, for instance, handsets are status symbols - and it's important to have the newest models and features - even though they cost a fortune, relatively speaking, with people spending HUGE percentages of their incomes. Handsets are also freedom and privacy in societies that dictate conformance. Handsets are social diversion and recreation. Clearly, they're a high priority - on a par with food and smoke. In India - the new WLL offices are flooded with applications - even though the standard of living is dismal. But, again, communication is perceived as a necessity. I wonder if cultural anthropologists are documenting this process. It would make a very interesting study... ben

To: marginmike who wrote (95447)	3/8/2001 1:56:28 PM
From: Uncle Frank	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 152472

>> My concern is that 3G gets pushed off... And 2.5G, too, based on the depressingly repetitive delays in gprs. Without the new features that 2.5 and 3G can offer, the wireless market will stagnate. There just isn't any motivation to buy new hand sets right now, and we're reaching saturation for 2G. >> I am as bearish as bearish can be. The only longs I own are gold or Debt. I'm still stubbornly holding on to my Q, and even added in the low 50s at the end of February. Not that I have expectations for a sudden surge, but I feel it's at the low end of its range again, and love the returns I can get by using the common for covered calls. Imo, it's a better play than owning debt. uf