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Politics : High Tolerance Plasticity -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: Tommaso who wrote (1202)	3/8/2001 2:31:56 PM
From: Don England	Respond to of 23153

a blip from a kasriel commentary. Aluminum Production Cuts - An Example Of Stagflation Aluminum production totaling 1.252 million tonnes has been idled in the Pacific Northwest in recent months. This represents 76% of the region's capacity and 5.0% of global smelter capacity. The reason so much production has been taken out is that it is more profitable to resell contracted-for electrical power than to make aluminum. As favorably-priced power contracts expire at the end of September, even more production is expected to be cut. This energy price-induced decline in aluminum production is showing up in weaker industrial production data and manufacturing job losses. And this is what the Fed is reacting to - weaker output and rising unemployment. But, by cutting the fed funds rate and "printing" more money, will power costs decline in the Pacific Northwest? No. If anything, they will go up more as the demand for goods and services increases as a result of the increased money supply. The demand for aluminum will rise, too. But given the production cuts, the price of aluminum also will rise. And this, my friends, is a classic example of stagflation. ntrs.com don p.s. may have gone off the deep end here. was warned all along that tech was like the devil-bronc 'muerte': he throwed every man that tried to rode him.... or something like that. but, wanted to play, and now am out of all my tech up modestly. have taking the advice of mentors who say the real s.t. bull-run comes in the nyse. am now newly into cat, mmm, utx, dcn, gpc, p, lmt and sun. many of these, all?, are pretty toppy and could as easily pull back as surge up. i'll know soon enuf. won't be staying too long, either.

To: Tommaso who wrote (1202)	3/8/2001 2:47:59 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (3) \| Respond to of 23153

Cramer has done fairly well on his calls. He is a trader, and will go in and out for a few points, however - This means LOTS of in/out , sometimes inside of one week. I've used him as a short term indicator, and he's okay in that role. (If I have a stock going from say 40 to 48 over three months, and I gain another 3/4 point because he had me wait another two days, it's worth while) He urged people to cut back on tech since Late September. Urging became strident in November / early December. He got on optical networkers relatively early and then got out. He has stayed away from semis most of this year. He has roatated in and out of drug stock at about the right time over the past 2 years, usually for about a 3-8% gain. He has also been good with financials and brokerage stocks. He has NOT been good with E&P, rarely talks about it, although some times mentions the drillers. So the question is - Is he a coincident (same time) indicator OR a lagging indicator for E&P ? If he's coincident we could see anothe 10-25 % upside. If he's lagging, maybe 0-5 % more upside and time to start selling.