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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (88426)	3/8/2001 6:50:24 PM
From: Jane4IceCream	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

Hey Donovan! I got the GOLD...thanks for pounding it in my head the past few months. You were spot-on. Looks like a flurry of buying late in the session <esp NEM> too. Have nice positions in NEM, HM, PDG, HGMCY, AEM. Do you see any laggards here? Any smaller cap plays come to mind you like? Many Thanks, Jane

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (88426)	3/8/2001 10:00:22 PM
From: isopatch	Read Replies (2) \| Respond to of 95453

Slider. Right on! Japan's THE weak link and actually as much the key swing factor in the macro demand equation for crude in Asia, as SA is the swing factor in supply. What "the trees grow to the sky" O&G perma bulls fail to realize is that Japan is not only the worlds 2nd largest economy; they also import ALL their oil! Unlike us, they have no significant domestic crude production. On top of that, the oft mentioned high demand growth for crude and products from smaller Asian nations is due to demand from Japan and the USA for their exports. With the 2 big locomotives slowing down where does that leave crude demand in those Tiger nations as demand for their exports slow drastically? Although our domestic NG market is, to a large extent, independent of OPEC and supported by the powerful secular trend in power generation...NG still trades in tandem with the crude and products complex and my guess is that it will only slowly decouple from them over the next year or two. My read on how this all falls out is a more pronounced cyclical downward slope in the crude oriented plays both in OS and E&Ps. NG has already fallen by nearly 50% from the call we made in early January (which was politely received with a hail of bricks and broken bottles tossed by a few of the more bilious la la land, plastic & concrete bunkerite NG perma bulls, ggg). The current TA looks like we've got a good counter-trend rally that could be the 1st step in developing a trading range environment in the NG stocks between now & Sept. I've always found Short/Intermediate trading ranges to work well with my market style so you won't hear any complains from this direction IF this is how it plays out. Your point the other day is very well taken and should be in the front of every traders play book who wants to work in this market environment. BE NIMBLE, don't be married to your stocks, don't be a max margin, pom pom waiving kamikazie pilot(lol), and don't be a perma bull OR a perma bear. And be ready to pull the rip cord when the rally shows signs of rolling over. For those who feel their skills, temperment and risk profile aren't up to those requirements? They should continue to keep above average cash reserves. Then if we do get ambushed with a sudden market meltdown the cheese is there to do some big time bargain hunting. All JMVHO. Gold sure looks great! Understand lease rates took another pop. BTW, my Golden Retriever...ELVIS!!...just came in and volunteered to be our mascot for the new Bull Market in gold(G). Best Isopatch

To: SliderOnTheBlack who wrote (88426)	3/9/2001 8:55:50 AM
From: Roebear	Respond to of 95453

Slider, Apologies for not getting back to you yet on TESOF, but with what little time is left in my schedule, I've been going heavy into gold stocks again, starting wed and finished with the dip on thursday (EDIT: near the open, of course). TESOF I will get to sometime next week, but all the things I've said about it in the past are still valid. The thing is the market is treacherous here and I am focused on gold for now. I traded out of most (not all) of my gold positions at last rally (was that last week?ggg), was able to reestablish below my sales price with all but MDG, which I originally had at 6.20, now 6.80 basis, had sold it a dime or so less than that. AEM, which I want to hold long term (some of it) and I had to wait for a wash sale period on that one which made me miss the fives but I finished buying my position at 6.55. I have min chart targets of 9 and change for both AEM and MDG which are my favorites, those are not final targets, far from it, but we will have to see how things develop. Of the majors I like PDG, nice tape action, NEM had some bad news about a mine being depleted early. Interesting open to come this morning on HM, I'm seeing 9.52 x 9.80 bid and ask, it closed yesterday at 6.25, that's got to be bad data, doesn't it? gggg Sentiment on gold threads is not equal to the potential of this rally and that's a good thing. As is lack of news for any specific references to the actual market mechanics of this rally, besides what you have outlined in your post, which is ample inference for those few gold investors/traders left. Things may REALLY be different this time, VBG. Edit: 270 being attacked now in NY, that is an important level for the POG. Shorts are toast if that's breached. Best Regards, Roebear