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Technology Stocks : Advanced Micro Devices - Moderated (AMD) -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: kash johal who wrote (30909)	3/8/2001 10:59:21 PM
From: niceguy767	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

kash: "AMD is therefore significantly exposed to this, like it or not." Maybe you should short AMD at $24.50 since you feel so strongly...Let the market decide...Personally, I can think of 99.9% of stocks I'd short before AMD, but maybe, just maybe, the INTC revelation this PM is capitulation...Nas at 2200 when it was 5000 a year ago...Don't think I'd want to short an AMD with Q1 earnings around $0.40 or better, world leading product lineup in flash and microprocessors and 25% revenue growth rate a reasonable possibility in Y2001...Surely you wouldn't short a company with those projections going forward and in this environment...unless your Y2001 AMD projections differ greatly...I understand negativity in this environment with companies who can't produce a profit...Just don't get your negativity on AMD at $24.50...Feel free to elucidate your negativity!!!

To: kash johal who wrote (30909)	3/9/2001 9:01:03 AM
From: fyodor_	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 275872

Kash: Well there are lies and damn lies. Majority of high volume semiconductors are sold under some form a contract. And then there is the "spot" price. These parts are typically sold by AMD's distributors who try and maximise their revenues depending upon the spot market. In general flash spot prices last year were running 3-4x contract prices last year. One thing to remember is that Flash isn't DRAM. There are many different kinds of flash and many different standards within each category. Intel and FASL, for example, basically don't compete. FASL has just recently started to make the kind of flash that Intel does - and even those parts aren't exchangeable. Switching from one major flash player to another usually requires a degree of redesign. This increases the insulation of contract prices from spot prices. (It's also pretty much useless to talk about "market share in flash" - NAND and NOR markets and applications are fairly different) -fyo