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Gold/Mining/Energy : Strictly: Drilling and oil-field services -- Ignore unavailable to you. Want to Upgrade?

To: pls418 who wrote (88434)	3/8/2001 11:15:49 PM
From: Big Dog	Respond to of 95453

You forgot one attribute -- lucky! FGH and OceanRig are at the mercy of each other. The very survival of both businesses may depend on the outcome of this case. OceanRig will likely end up paying FGH a sum of money (I guess somewhere around 30 million USD) and that will be that. There is almost zero chance of anyone else doing the completion work on anything but a time and materials basis...no way someone other than FGH would be able to come in a do a fixed priced deal for OceanRig as they have know way of knowing what they would be stepping into. And a T&M invoice to complete these rigs would eat OceanRig's lunch. JL is playing hard ball here, as he is known to do, but this is no bluff. Unless OceanRig coughs up cash these rigs will sit right where they are until hell freezes over or until all our board pals come back home, whichever occurs first. For all practical purposes, these are the only assets OceanRig owns. They will not let this drag on for too long, IMO. I think OceanRig has somewhere between 50 and 75 million USD on hand. Of course they need this money to get these rigs out to work after completion and for ongoing operations. But it looks like they will be spending a portion of it to get the rigs completed. Is the damage done vis a vis FGH? Yes, I think their reputation is soiled badly. Their best customers (oil patch-wise) are Noble and Ensco who I hear are still in their corner. But will either of these companies be the white knight and place actual orders for business at FGH to restore confidence? Hasn't happened yet. While Noble and Ensco may be in the corner of FGH, my thinking is that it will take some big balls to step off into a big rig contract with FGH until things have calmed down, plus 4 months. But I could be wrong... One thing FGH has going for it...the world capacity for building jackups is much tighter than most people think. AmFels shipyard is about the only US yard that could build a jackup (Rowans Marathon excluded) and AmFels is near full, and I expect they will be getting another jackup order shortly. This tight capacity in the US is important because that's where you have to build in order to qualify for the favorable MARAD Chapter 11 loan guarantees. There is also limited capacity in the far east. The yards want to build semis, not jackups. So if there comes a time when jackup newbuilds are in demand, which I think will come sooner rather than later, then FGH won't be the yard of choice, but will be the only yard to choose. How long will that be? May be too long for FGH. We'll see. The stock action today was excellent with a large number of buys coming in at 5000 shares on a regular basis. I don't know how to figure these things, but I bet if you looked a the numbers on buys vs. sells as related to volume, the buyers would come out way ahead. It was very fun to watch...and profitable. Earnings will likely be worse than bad as they clear the decks. The stock will continue to be vloatile but will move higher as the problem is resolved with OceanRig. (The Norwegians can't keep secrets like this and word of a resolution will show up in the market, maybe much like today, as they start trading...in Norway the OceanRig situation is well known and well followed by the oil community (which is a big part of Norway). Someone should write a book... big

To: pls418 who wrote (88434)	3/9/2001 11:41:43 PM
From: pls418	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

I noticed on CNBC FGH was down .91 to 1.50 after hours.Later I took a quote from microsoft money central and it confirmed it. Then I notice the after hours trading appeared to have been 7,200 shares. Who the hell would have done that? After Hours: Last 1.50 Change -0.95 Volume 7,200 fyi Last 2.45 Open 2.02 Change +0.45 Previous Close 2.00 % Change +22.50% Bid NA fyi Volume 1.699 Mil Ask NA Day's High 2.65 52 Week High 9.62 Day's Low 2.00 52 Week Low 1.24 The stuff below the after hours was the regular daily close. Anybody have any idea what in the hell is going on here? I know after hours they match prices but who would have been stupid enough to take a $1.50? Anybody think something is up here? Thanks. PS was it you big dog? "VBG" pls418

To: pls418 who wrote (88434)	3/10/2001 3:59:42 PM
From: Tomas	Read Replies (1) \| Respond to of 95453

FGH on ropes in punch up over rigs Upstream, March 9-15 The fate of troubled US yard group Friede Goldman Halter remained uncertain this week as its stock tumbled, its creditors circled wagons and a key client filed for arbitration, write Erik Means and Blake Wright. FGH stock, which traded at $6.40 just a month ago but closed at $2.75 on 28 February, fell even further after its surprise decision on 1 March to stop work on two deep-water semi-submersibles for Ocean Rig of Norway. About 1000 yard hands are without work as a result of the dispute, which involves Ocean Rig's refusal to increase overall payments. Ocean Rig filed immediatey for arbitration in London and FGH saw its stock plummet to around $1.60 by mid-week. Ocean Rig -- whose entire business revolves around delivery and operation of the two new semisubs -- also suffered as its shares fell more than 18% during the week. The yard and the rig owner have been at odds on the heavily delayed order for the twin Bingo 9000-design semisubs. Ocean Rig chairman Bjarne Skeie said FGH's attempts at what he called "blackmail" would fail and hinted his company was ready to cancel the contract and move the Leiv Eiriksson and Eirik Raude to another yard for completion. "This is just a mess," one US onlooker bemoaned. "They (FGH) won't talk to anybody. I think the first rig must be done. I think that once they deliver the rig they lose their leverage, so they are hanging on to it to try and get more money." The source added: "They've lost a lot of credibility and they are under a lot of financial stress. Can you imagine a drilling contractor giving them a contract now?" Dark clouds continued to gather this week as FGH said it was in negotiations with lenders who allege the company has violated loan covenants under its $110 million credit facility.